476
FXUS64 KOUN 301739
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1139 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1137 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
- BELOW-ZERO WIND CHILLS LIKELY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA.
- LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES/SPRINKLES POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF OK, NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
- MODERATING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE COLD AIR ALONG WITH SOME CLOUD COVER WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO VARY THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW
30S IN NORTH CENTRAL OK, WHERE COLD AIR COMES IN FIRST AND CLOUD
COVER IS IN PLACE, TO THE 40S/LOW 50S IN WESTERN AND SOUTHERN OK AND
WESTERN NORTH TX. WITH THE COLD AIR CONTINUING TO MOVE IN, COLDER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
(AROUND 0 IN NORTH CENTRAL OK) AND TEENS. EVEN COLD WIND CHILLS ARE
EXPECTED WITH BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
OKLAHOMA. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS -10 WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NORTH
CENTRAL OK. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
MODELS SHOW UPPER TROUGH ROTATING FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
IN SE U.S. TODAY INTO TOMORROW. THIS TROUGH ALONG WITH THE CAA WILL
BRING LOW CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES/SPRINKLES TO PARTS OF
THE FA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
THE COLDEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE SATURDAY. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY CLIMB INTO THE 20S TO LOW/MID 30S
WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN NORTH CENTRAL OK. ANOTHER
COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT BUT NOT AS COLD AS TONIGHT
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS. WIND CHILLS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY WHICH WILL
LEAD TO THE BEGINNING OF A WARM UP. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 20 TO 25 DEGREES WARMER THAN ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL CERTAINLY HELP
TO CONTINUE TO MELT ANY LINGERING SNOW LEFT OVER FROM LAST WEEKEND'S
WINTER STORM.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT
AS A TROUGH APPROACHES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE A LATE ARRIVAL AND THE MODELS IN
GENERAL HAVE BACKED OFF ON HOW WIDESPREAD THE PERCEPTION WILL BE.
CURRENT NBM CONFINES 20% OR HIGHER POPS TO AREAS EAST OF ROUGHLY
A SHAWNEE TO MADILL LINE WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE AT THE MOMENT
LOOKING AT THE DYNAMIC ENSEMBLE-BASED SCENARIOS. OF COURSE SOME
INDIVIDUAL RUNS LIKE THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF KEEP SOME POTENTIAL
FARTHER WEST INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, AND WE WILL STILL HAVE A FEW
DAYS TO BETTER JUDGE THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM, BUT
THE SMALLER PRECIPITATION FOOTPRINT LOOKS REASONABLE OVERALL RIGHT
NOW.
OVERALL THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT WORK WEEK IS FOR NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORTUNATELY AT THIS TIME, WE DO NOT SEE A
DAY WITH AN OVERLAP OF LOW HUMIDITY AND STRONG WINDS TO RAISE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS OVER INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 508 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
TERMINALS KPNC & KSWO SHOULD STAY IN A VFR CATEGORY AT LEAST
THROUGH 19Z WHILE MOST OF OUR REMAINING TERMINALS SHOULD STAY IN
A VFR CATEGORY AT LEAST THROUGH 00Z. A WEATHER SYSTEM DIGGING
THROUGH THE U.S. GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST WILL BE PUSHING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR AREA BETWEEN 22-02Z WITH INCREASING NORTH-NORTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND 10-15 KTS GUSTING UP TO 20
KTS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LOWERING CEILINGS TO AN MVFR CATEGORY
ACROSS MOST OF OUR TERMINALS STARTING IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AS
EARLY AS 20Z THEN MOST OF OUR REMAINING TERMINALS AFTER 01Z. LIGHT
SNOW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR KSPS
BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW (10%) AT THIS TIME TO BE INCLUDED IN
THE FORECAST. HOWEVER THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS TERMINAL KSPS WHICH
HAS A 30% PROBABILITY OF LIGHT SNOW AND/OR FLURRIES BETWEEN
01-06Z. A NORTH TO SOUTH ALIGNED LOW-LEVEL JET MAY PRODUCE SOME
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR (MAINLY SPEED VS DIRECTION) AT FLIGHT LEVEL
020 FT BY 04Z ACROSS FOUR OF OUR TERMINALS IN CENTRAL &
NORTHCENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 8 27 18 48 / 10 0 0 0
HOBART OK 9 30 16 53 / 10 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 14 31 19 55 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 9 35 20 61 / 10 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 0 22 14 44 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 12 32 20 49 / 10 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM CST
SATURDAY FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.
TX...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM CST
SATURDAY FOR TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...68
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