547
FXUS64 KOUN 310642
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1242 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1241 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
- BELOW-ZERO WIND CHILLS THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA.
- MODERATING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
THE COLD TEMPERATURES ARE BACK. THE REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR
HAS MOVED INTO THE STATE ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. THE WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES IS ALREADY BELOW -5 F ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA,
AND MUCH OF OKLAHOMA WILL SEE MINIMUM WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ZERO
THIS MORNING. FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS NORTH TEXAS, MINIMUM WIND CHILL
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN ZERO AND +5 F THIS MORNING.
SOME RADAR ECHOES PERSIST FROM NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TOWARD SOUTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. MUCH OF THIS IS VIRGA, BUT EXPECT TO SEE A FEW
FLURRIES REACH THE GROUND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THESE
ECHOES AND FLURRIES SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AS THE 1043+ MB SURFACE
HIGH MOVES INTO OKLAHOMA. AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
HIGH.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
THE COLD TEMPERATURES WITH THIS AIRMASS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE WARMER THAN THIS MORNING, BUT
STILL GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND COOLER THAN NORMAL. BUT IT WILL
FEEL MUCH DIFFERENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 15 TO
25 DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY. MONDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
THERE IS A HINT IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS OF SOME VERY LIGHT QPF
SUNDAY MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. BUT THE SIGNAL IS NOT STRONG AND DO NOT
BELIEVE THE POTENTIAL IS SUFFICIENT TO INTRODUCE POPS AT THIS
TIME.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, AN UPPER WAVE AMPLIFIES IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER
FRONT INTO THE AREA COOLING TEMPERATURES A BIT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH NOT AS COLD AS OUR CURRENT AIRMASS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE TREND OF POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION IN OUR
AREA WITH THIS FRONT WITH MENTIONABLE POPS NOW CONFINED TO
PORTIONS OF ATOKA AND BRYAN COUNTIES ON TUESDAY WITHIN OUR
FORECAST AREA.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE MOVES INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS, BUT THEN TEMPERATURES
WARM TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
REDEVELOPS TO THE WEST AND THE COLD AIR SHIFTS TO THE EASTERN U.S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1009 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR AND LIFT LATE TONIGHT WITH A RETURN
TO VFR CEILINGS BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE IS A LOW
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES PAST MIDNIGHT. A
SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OKLAHOMA TOMORROW RETURNING
WINDS TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 26 18 49 32 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 30 16 54 29 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 31 19 57 31 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 36 20 63 30 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 23 14 45 25 / 0 10 0 0
DURANT OK 31 18 49 31 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
OKZ004>048-050>052.
TX...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...23
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