781
FXUS64 KOUN 312310
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
510 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 507 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
- ANOTHER COLD DAY AND NIGHT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
- MODERATING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
ONE MORE COLD DAY TODAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM UP. THE
COLD AIRMASS THAT CAME INTO THE AREA LAST NIGHT WILL LEAD TO HIGHS
IN THE 20S TO MAYBE LOW 30S THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE AREA.
LIGHT WINDS TODAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTH AS THE SFC
HIGH THAT IS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST.
WIND SPEEDS AT 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO A WIND CHILL IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE MODELS/CAMS SHOW THAT THIS SHORTWAVE
COULD PRODUCE SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THE CHANCES OF THIS ARE
PRETTY LOW (~10%) BUT WORTH PUTTING A MENTION OF SNOW FLURRIES IN
THE FORECAST. HAVE SNOW FLURRY MENTION IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE FA,
MAINLY EAST OF I-35. HOWEVER, MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT SEE ANY
FLAKES.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
THE WARM UP BEGINS SUNDAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE. MODELS SHOW
SOUTHWEST SFC FLOW/DOWNSLOPE ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S
IN NORTH CENTRAL OK TO LOW 60S IN PARTS OF WESTERN OK AND WESTERN
NORTH TX WITH 50S ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. THE FORECAST HIGHS
FOR SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE AS MUCH AS 20 TO 25+ DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY'S. ON MONDAY, EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S WITH MUCH OF THE FA
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, AN UPPER WAVE AMPLIFIES IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER
FRONT INTO THE AREA COOLING TEMPERATURES A BIT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH NOT AS COLD AS OUR CURRENT AIRMASS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE TREND OF POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION IN OUR
AREA WITH THIS FRONT WITH MENTIONABLE POPS NOW CONFINED TO
PORTIONS OF ATOKA AND BRYAN COUNTIES ON TUESDAY WITHIN OUR
FORECAST AREA.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE MOVES INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS, BUT THEN TEMPERATURES
WARM TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
REDEVELOPS TO THE WEST AND THE COLD AIR SHIFTS TO THE EASTERN U.S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 507 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
BROKEN MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF SNOW FLURRIES
THROUGH ABOUT 06Z FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA (NO
ACCUMULATION OR IMPACTS TO VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED). OTHERWISE,
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BY
MID-MORNING ON SUNDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 19 50 33 60 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 16 55 29 64 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 19 57 32 67 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 20 63 29 67 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 15 46 24 55 / 10 0 0 0
DURANT OK 19 50 31 62 / 10 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...01
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