105
FXUS64 KOUN 011104
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
504 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 447 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
- A CHILLY MORNING, BUT WARMING TEMPERATURES TODAY.
- MODERATING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
- VERY LIMITED PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL THIS WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
IT'S A COLD MORNING, BUT SOUTHWEST/DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL DEVELOP
TODAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE GULF COAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY. THE WARMING MAY STILL BE SOMEWHAT TEMPERED IN
AREAS WHERE SNOW COVER PERSISTS AND MORE ENERGY WILL BE
REQUIRED FOR LATENT HEATING OF THE SNOWPACK WHICH WILL THEN ALLOW
LESS SENSIBLE HEATING. THIS WILL BE MAINLY BE IN THE AREA FROM
WEST CENTRAL TO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE SNOW COVER WAS STILL
OBSERVED YESTERDAY.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH MORNING LOWS NOT
AS COLD AS THIS WEEKEND AND AFTERNOON HIGHS ANOTHER 5 TO 15
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE AMPLIFIES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO
THE AREA FOR TUESDAY, BUT THE AIRMASS IS NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS THE
ONE WE HAVE HAD LATE THIS PAST WEEK.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAKE A VERY LATE RETURN AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE GULF COAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL PREVENT A
SIGNIFICANT RETURN OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
WITH THIS LACK OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE UNTIL LATE, WEATHER MODELS
STILL SUGGEST THAT ONLY THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE FORECAST
AREA HAVE SOME POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT, AND
EVEN THIS IS ONLY ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE ON TUESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY, THEN THIS TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND UPPER
RIDGING DEVELOPS TO THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP ANY PUSH OF COLD AIR
MORE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND EAST COAST AND WELL NORTHEAST OF
HERE. A WARMING TREND WILL RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES WILL ABOVE NORMAL. THE CURRENT MODELS DO SHOW THE
POTENTIAL OF A FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT THE
PRIMARY PUSH OF COLD AIR REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTHEAST AND ONLY A
SLIGHT COOLING IS EXPECTED IF THIS FRONT DOES MOVE THROUGH.
AS FAR AS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, AFTERNOON HUMIDITY ON THURSDAY IS
EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT IN NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA WITH MODERATE WEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH AND ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE THE
FORECAST HUMIDITY AND WIND VALUES ARE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE THIS WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 447 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
ALL TERMINALS (EXCEPT FOR KSWO & KPNC) ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A
VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
LATE IN THE FORECAST AROUND 04Z WHICH COULD TRANSITION INTO
FREEZING FOG BY 06Z AS TEMPERATURES GO SUBFREEZING. AS A RESULT
TERMINALS KSWO & KPNC SHOULD REMAIN IN A VFR CATEGORY AT LEAST
THROUGH 04Z THEN POTENTIALLY REDUCE TO AN MVFR CATEGORY ESPECIALLY
BY 08Z. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW THIS FAR OUT IN TIME FOR DENSE FOG IN
THE FORECAST AFFECTING THESE TWO TERMINALS SHOULD IT DEVELOP. A
SURFACE LOW CIRCULATION WAY UP IN ONTARIO CANADA WILL BE VEERING
OUR SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY 15Z WITH WIND SPEEDS
ACROSS OUR TERMINALS AROUND 10-15 KTS GUSTING UP TO 20 KTS. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BACK MORE SOUTHERLY BY 01Z AT 5-10 KTS AND COULD BE
GOING LIGHT & VARIABLE BY 04Z ACROSS A FEW OF OUR TERMINALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 50 33 61 35 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 56 30 64 34 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 57 33 68 39 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 63 29 67 30 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 47 25 54 31 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 50 32 63 45 / 0 0 0 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...68
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