192
FXUS64 KOUN 020442
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1042 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1034 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
- MODERATING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
- VERY LIMITED PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL THIS WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
THE WARM UP BEGINS TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE MID/UPPER 40S MAINLY IN NORTH CENTRAL OK TO LOW 60S IN PARTS OF
WESTERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX. THESE HIGHS WOULD BE 20 TO 30
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARM UP WILL LIKELY BE
A BIT SLOWER IN THOSE AREAS WHERE SNOWPACK LINGERS COMPARED TO
SURROUNDING LOCATIONS BUT STILL CLIMBING WELL ABOVE FREEZING AIDING
IN THE MELTING OF THE SNOW. THE START OF THE WARM UP TODAY IS DUE TO
SOUTHWEST/DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT LEADING TO WARMER TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20S
AND 30S WHICH WOULD BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING'S
LOWS.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
THE WARM UP CONTINUES MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S ALTHOUGH
MUCH OF THE FA IS EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S. THESE TEMPERATURES
ARE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY FEBRUARY. TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO BE WARMER ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA WITH LOWS IN THE
30S AND 40S.
MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING AND MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AT THE SFC, A SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE FA MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE AIRMASS
BEHIND THIS FRONT IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD BUT WILL CAUSE SLIGHTLY
COOLER (~5 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY) TEMPERATURES TUESDAY.
THE SFC HIGH THAT MOVED ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND WILL SHIFT INTO
THE GULF COAST REGION. THIS WILL SLOW MOISTURE RETURN TO THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE AND FRONT. HOWEVER,
30S/40S DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO PARTS OF THE FA. THIS
MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A LOW (~20%) CHANCE IN SE PARTS OF THE FA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BUT THE BETTER CHANCES ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE E AND SE OF THE FA WITH THIS SYSTEM.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY, THEN THIS TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND UPPER
RIDGING DEVELOPS TO THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP ANY PUSH OF COLD AIR
MORE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND EAST COAST AND WELL NORTHEAST OF
HERE. A WARMING TREND WILL RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE CURRENT MODELS DO SHOW THE
POTENTIAL OF A FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT THE
PRIMARY PUSH OF COLD AIR REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTHEAST AND ONLY A
SLIGHT COOLING IS EXPECTED IF THIS FRONT DOES MOVE THROUGH.
AS FAR AS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, AFTERNOON HUMIDITY ON THURSDAY IS
EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT IN NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA WITH MODERATE WEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH AND ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE THE
FORECAST HUMIDITY AND WIND VALUES ARE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE THIS WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
PATCHY FREEZING FOG, ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITY, IS POSSIBLE OVER
A PORTION OF NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA ON MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER,
PROBABILITIES OF VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 6SM HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD
TO ROUGHLY 35% AT KPNC AND 30% AT KSWO. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BELOW FREEZING WHEN ANY FOG DEVELOPS, DENSE FREEZING FOG IS
NOT EXPECTED. WILL SEE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY WITH SSW-LY WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS IN SOME AREAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 50 31 61 35 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 56 29 65 34 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 57 33 67 39 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 63 27 65 29 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 47 25 53 30 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 49 31 63 45 / 0 0 0 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...01
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