968
FXUS64 KOUN 021137
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
537 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 514 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
- MODERATING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
- VERY LIMITED PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL THIS WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
THERE IS SOME SIGNAL IN THE MODELS FOR PATCHY FOG IN NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA ON THIS GROUNDHOG DAY MORNING AND THERE IS A RELATIVE
MAXIMUM OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THIS AREA. THE EVENING SHIFT ADDED
THE MENTION OF FREEZING FOG IN THIS AREA AND WILL KEEP THIS IN
THE GRIDS THROUGH MID-MORNING. WILL WATCH TRENDS THROUGH THE
MORNING TO SEE IF FOG DEVELOPS, HOW DENSE IT MAY BECOME AND IF
THERE WILL BE A NEED FOR ANY ADVISORY.
OTHERWISE HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TODAY.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 111 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AROUND
SUNSET THIS EVENING AND MOVE SOUTHEAST AND REACH THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND NOON. AGAIN, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE A LATE ARRIVAL AS WINDS ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST HAVE
ONLY DEVELOPED AN ON-SHORE COMPONENT LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DEVELOP EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS
FAR SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA, BUT THESE CHANCES REMAIN LIMITED IN THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES OUT. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN MONDAY THANKS TO THIS FRONT, BUT REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE BY
EARLY FEBRUARY STANDARDS.
A UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT APPROACHES
ON TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND THERE IS SOME MODEL
SIGNAL FOR THE POTENTIAL OF LIGHT QPF. NBM DOES NOT INTRODUCE ANY
SIGNIFICANT POPS GIVEN THE ISOLATED QPF SIGNAL AND SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE LOCATIONS OF THIS SIGNAL, BUT WE HAVE INTRODUCED THE
MENTION OF SPRINKLES AND/OR FLURRIES IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. WILL
WATCH THE TREND IN THIS POTENTIAL THOUGH AS THE NEW OPERATIONAL
ECMWF AND NAM ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW A STRONGER SIGNAL LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL AS A
SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN
UNITED STATES. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S AREAWIDE ON
THURSDAY, WITH SOME WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS REACHING INTO THE
70S ON FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
ALSO KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY THERE IS SOME MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS THE
NEW OPERATIONAL ECMWF BRINGS A CUT-OFF LOW INTO TEXAS ON SUNDAY
AND BRINGS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. MOST MODELS
AND MODEL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP THIS LOW FARTHER WEST, SO WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST WARM AND DRY FOR NOW.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, DRIVEN
MAINLY BY FORECAST LOW HUMIDITY. OTHERWISE THE FORECASTS OF WIND
AND HUMIDITY KEEP FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN CHECK THIS WEEK
DESPITE THE WARM WEATHER.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 514 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
MONITORING NORTHERN OKLAHOMA FOR A POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING FOG
THROUGH 14Z ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS GETTING LOWER AND LOWER BASED
ON SOUTHEAST WINDS STIRRING THE AIR AND LESS FAVORABLE DEWPOINT
SPREADS THAN ANTICIPATED. AS A RESULT EXPECTING ALL TERMINALS
(EXCEPT KDUA) TO REMAIN IN A VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. STRATUS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE IN THE
FORECAST WHICH COULD IMPACT TERMINAL KDUA AFTER 09Z, SO EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THAT TIME. WILL KEEP LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
AT TERMINALS KOKC, KOUN, KLAW, AND KSPS NOW THROUGH 16Z DUE TO A
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATED LOW-LEVEL JET IN PLACE. SURFACE
WINDS ACROSS MOST TERMINALS EXPECTED TO VEER SOUTHWEST BY 16Z WITH
WIND SPEEDS AT 10-15 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. A COLD FRONT
WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS MOST OF OUR TERMINALS BETWEEN 00-10Z
PRODUCING A NORTH WIND SHIFT BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND 10 KTS. NOT
EXPECTING THE FRONT/WIND SHIFT TO PUSH INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WITHIN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER EXPECTING A LOW-LEVEL JET PRE-FRONTAL
ONLY IMPACTING TERMINAL KDUA WITH LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS
BY 04Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 61 35 55 32 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 63 34 60 32 / 0 0 0 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 67 39 63 35 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 66 29 60 31 / 0 0 0 10
PONCA CITY OK 55 30 52 28 / 0 0 0 10
DURANT OK 61 45 61 33 / 0 10 10 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...68
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