814
FXUS64 KOUN 022345
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
545 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 535 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
- MODERATING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
- LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN IN SE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
- LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION (RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SNOW)
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
THE THAW CONTINUES TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO
THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S THIS AFTERNOON. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARL FEBRUARY. THE COOLEST SPOTS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THOSE AREAS WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SNOW STILL
ON THE GROUND. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARMER
COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 20S IN NW OK TO THE LOW 40S IN SE PARTS OF THE FA.
MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AT THE SFC, AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO MOVE INTO NW OK LATER TODAY, PROBABLY AROUND
SUNSET, AND CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE ON THE INCREASE WITH 40S
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO PARTS OF THE FA LATER TODAY/TONIGHT.
IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RETURN ALONG
WITH TIMING OF THE FRONT, BUT A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD AFFECT
FAR SE PORTIONS OF THE FA LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE RAIN
CHANCES ARE LOW IN SE PARTS OF THE FA WITH BETTER CHANCES EXPECTED
TO BE SE OF THE AREA WHERE BETTER MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE IN SE
PARTS OF THE FA EARLY TUESDAY AND WILL THEN MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
TUESDAY MORNING. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS TUESDAY
MORNING. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO MAYBE 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY WHICH WOULD STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AT MANY
LOCATIONS.
MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AND MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE INCREASED THE QPF SIGNAL A
LITTLE OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS AND ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING A LOW
CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR, ESPECIALLY IN PARTS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OK. WITH THAT NBM HAS INITIALIZED WITH
20-30% POPS STARTING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SFC TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE WARMING INTO THE
MID/UPPER 40S AND 50S BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND FREEZING IN SOME AREAS DURING SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION
WINDOW, LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY IN NORTH CENTRAL OK WITH JUST A COLD RAIN ELSEWHERE. THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE PRECIPITATION TYPE ESPECIALLY WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
BE HOVERING RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. IF TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
AS COLD AS FORECAST THEN THE PRECIP WILL LIKELY FALL AS A COLD RAIN
OR IF TEMPERATURES COOL AT SFC AND JUST ABOVE QUICKER THEN WILL
LIKELY FALL AS LIGHT SNOW WITH VERY LITTLE/NO FREEZING RAIN.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS
THAT RECEIVE PRECIP SEEING JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. NO
MAJOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND/OR
SNOW.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN
UNITED STATES. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S AREAWIDE ON
THURSDAY, WITH SOME WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS REACHING INTO THE
70S ON FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
ALSO KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY THERE IS SOME MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS THE
NEW OPERATIONAL ECMWF BRINGS A CUT-OFF LOW INTO TEXAS ON SUNDAY
AND BRINGS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. MOST MODELS
AND MODEL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP THIS LOW FARTHER WEST, SO WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST WARM AND DRY FOR NOW.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, DRIVEN
MAINLY BY FORECAST LOW HUMIDITY. OTHERWISE THE FORECASTS OF WIND
AND HUMIDITY KEEP FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN CHECK THIS WEEK
DESPITE THE WARM WEATHER.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS, CURRENTLY OBSERVED OVER PARTS OF NORTH-
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, SUBSIDE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. EXPECT WINDS
TO SHIFT NORTHERLY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD WITH LLWS ALSO POSSIBLE BY 06Z FOR
MANY TERMINALS. AT KDUA, PATCHY FOG, ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS, ARE
ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY MORNING AND RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW (LESS
THAN 20%).
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 35 57 32 50 / 0 0 10 20
HOBART OK 34 60 32 53 / 0 0 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 39 63 34 56 / 0 0 0 10
GAGE OK 29 59 30 52 / 0 0 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 30 52 29 47 / 0 0 20 30
DURANT OK 44 62 33 53 / 20 10 0 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...01
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