231
FXUS64 KOUN 030708
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
108 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1254 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
- NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOST OF THIS WEEK TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
- LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH FREEZING RAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHCENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
- FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS WILL BE INCREASING TOWARD THE END OF THIS
WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
A WEAK SURFACE FRONT ORIGINATING LEE OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES
CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
THROUGH OUR AREA TODAY. THE AIR MASS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS FRONT
IS MOSTLY MODERATE COOLER NORTHWESTERN PACIFIC-BASED AS WE'LL STILL
SEE ABOUT A 10 DEGREE COOLDOWN THIS AFTERNOON FROM YESTERDAY WITH
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WE SHOULD SEE
SOME CLEARING OF SKIES TOWARD SUNRISE ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL REFILL CLOUD COVER WITH INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUDINESS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
PRESSURE HEIGHTS FURTHER DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS OUR UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS A BIT WITH COOLER REINFORCING AIR GRADUALLY APPROACHING THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM OUT OF THE U.S. GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE DOWN AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD IN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH A SECOND COLD FRONT PUSH DURING LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE COMING DOWN FROM WESTERN KANSAS COULD PRODUCE SOME
PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA ON TUESDAY
MORNING. MOSTLY A "COLD" RAIN WHILE PRECIPITATING ALTHOUGH
NORTHCENTRAL OKLAHOMA COULD SEE A CHANGEOVER TO A WINTRY MIX OF
FREEZING RAIN/SNOW TO FREEZING DRIZZLE DUE TO PARTIAL MELTING WITHIN
A WARM NOSE ALONG WITH A GRADUALLY DRYING OUT DENDRITIC ICE GROWTH
ZONE OVERHEAD. WILL KEEP UP TO 30% POPS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. NOT
EXPECTING ANY STRONG COLD AIR FROM THIS REINFORCING AIR MASS AS
DIURNAL WARMING WILL SEE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RISING TO SEASONABLY
NORMAL. BY THURSDAY PRESSURE HEIGHTS ARE BACK ON THE RISE AS STRONG
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE
SETTLING IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT EXITS WITH BREEZY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASING FOR THURSDAY WITH A WARM FRONT PASSAGE WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
UPPER RIDGING STARTS BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH AS OUR WARMING TREND
PERSISTS FRIDAY INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
BY SATURDAY. EXPECTING UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH
AFTERNOONS WELL IN THE 70S WHICH IS NEARLY 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN
NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY. A SYSTEM COMING DOWN ACROSS THE U.S.
MIDWEST MAY PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON SUNDAY ENDING OUR WARMING TREND YET STILL MILD 60S
TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER LOW MAY CLOSE AND CUT-OFF OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS
TEXAS IN THE LOWER LEVELS POTENTIALLY FORMING A DRYLINE ACROSS
WESTERN TEXAS BY MONDAY MORNING THUS DESTABILIZING WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXPELLED FROM THIS STALLED
WARM PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS OUR AREA ON
MONDAY WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN CWA
NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
LLWS IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SINK
SOUTHWARD BEFORE EXITING OUR AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING. LATEST
SATELLITE INDICATES A STRATUS DECK HAS REACHED NORTH TEXAS AND
WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS TOWARDS KDUA TONIGHT. BY EARLY MORNING, IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KDUA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 56 32 51 30 / 0 20 30 0
HOBART OK 60 32 55 28 / 0 20 20 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 63 34 58 31 / 0 10 20 0
GAGE OK 59 30 54 26 / 0 20 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 51 29 50 25 / 0 20 20 0
DURANT OK 62 33 54 31 / 10 0 10 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...68
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...01
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