710
FXUS64 KOUN 191204
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
604 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 541 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
- NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS COULD GUST 30 TO 40 MPH FROM
MID MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES AND IMPROVING FIRE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
- DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES COULD BRING FIRE WEATHER
BACK TO THE AREA BY TUESDAY OF OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
ONE MORE DAY OF NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TODAY AS DRY, WARM, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WINDS COULD GUST
TO 30 TO 40 MPH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THIS MORNING INTO
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, GRADUALLY
BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY. A DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MID 50S IN NORTHWEST OK TO
LOW TO MID 70S IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL MOVE IN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH
WINDS CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY DECREASE AND BECOMING NORTHERLY.
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 20S NORTH TO UPPER 30S SOUTH.
WARE
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 102 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL BRING A BREAK IN FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGHS RETURN TO NEAR
AVERAGE. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN OK AND KS LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHICH WILL PROVE TO BE TOO FAR NORTH TO BRING
MUCH PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. VERY LOW CHANCES (<20%) FOR PRECIP
REMAIN ACROSS FAR NORTHERN OK FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH TEMPERATURES JUST
COLD ENOUGH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO MIX WITH RAIN. HOWEVER,
ANYTHING THAT FALLS WILL BE LIGHT IN INTENSITY AND BRIEF IN
DURATION WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF PRECIP EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
KANSAS.
WARE
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
NEAR-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH MAINTAINS NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION.
A MODERATING TREND IS THEN FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AS WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY AND RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THESE GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS AND DRY AIR COULD COMBINE TO BRING A RETURN OF FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA.
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR ON THE HORIZON FOR THE
NEXT 7-10 DAYS.
WARE
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 603 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH ONLY
HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL DECREASE IN SPEED THIS EVENING/AFTER
SUNSET.
MAHALE
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 102 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
FIRE WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A MAJOR CONCERN TODAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT FINALLY BRINGS THE AREA A BREAK FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
WINDS WILL VEER THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS
EASTWARD ACROSS KS. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING, WITH GUSTS TO 30
TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OK. WINDS WILL THEN
GRADUALLY BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES FURTHER
EAST WHICH WILL HELP BRING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM THE NORTH
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST OK. MANY CAMS STILL SHOW
A BELT OF DRIER AIR SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OK LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH RH POTENTIALLY NEAR OR BELOW 10%
WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR. THIS WILL CREATE NEAR-CRITICAL TO LOCALLY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THESE AREAS. THE TIMING OF
THE SYSTEM IS SUCH THAT WE MAY SEE AN EARLIER PEAK IN FIRE
CONDITIONS THAN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BEGIN RELAXING BY MID AFTERNOON AND COOLER AIR BEGINS MOVING INTO
THE AREA IN EARNEST AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. THEREFORE, THE
GREATEST OVERLAP IN LOW RH AND GUSTY WINDS APPEARS TO BE FROM
ROUGHLY 18-21Z, WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT SEEN FROM 21Z-00Z AND
MORE RAPID IMPROVEMENT AFTER SUNSET AS TEMPERATURES COOL AND RH
INCREASES, THOUGH THE SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING COULD CAUSE ISSUES FOR FIREFIGHTING EFFORTS ON ANY
ESTABLISHED FIRES.
WITH COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA BEHIND TONIGHT'S COLD FRONT,
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOW FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE DECREASED
FURTHER LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND WE NOW EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD BRING A RETURN OF ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL
FIRE CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY TO AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA.
WARE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 64 32 58 33 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 65 29 60 30 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 70 36 68 37 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 55 23 54 21 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 62 26 51 28 / 0 0 0 10
DURANT OK 72 40 66 43 / 0 0 10 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR OKZ004>047-050-051.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...10
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