639
FXUS64 KOUN 192346
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
546 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 450 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
- NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA UNTIL AFTER SUNDOWN.
- COOLER SEASONABLY NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND IMPROVING FIRE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
- DRY CONDITIONS AND UNSEASONABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES COULD BRING
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BACK TO THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 450 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
FRONT VERIFYING FASTER THAN SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE. THEREFORE, WE
HAVE UPDATED HOURLY FORECAST GRIDS FOR TEMPERATURE, DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURE, WIND, AND SKY COVER. WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH WITH SUNSET AND SUSTAINED NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO
15 MPH ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST IS
ANTICIPATED OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AS THE
SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE AREA. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH ELEVATED RISK BECOMING
LOW BY ABOUT 7 PM.
THOMPSON
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER WILL BE OUR CONCERN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNDOWN WITH COLDER AIR COMING THROUGH TONIGHT.
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE MIDWEST WILL KEEP OUR SURFACE WINDS BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON
OUT OF THE WEST GRADUALLY SHIFTING NORTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT BOUNDARY. THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
WIND SPEEDS SUSTAINED 20-25 MPH WHILE VERTICALLY MIXING WELL TO 850
MB FLOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTS 30-35 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
A DRYLINE REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH VERY DRY
AIR ADVECTING BEHIND IT ORIGINATING OFF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS/
PANHANDLES. UNSEASONABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALL
INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AS RH VALUES PLUNGE
INCREASING THE FIRE DANGER WEST OF THE DRYLINE WITH A CRITICAL TO
NEAR CRITICAL RISK WITH A RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL SHORTLY
AFTER SUNDOWN WHEN RH'S RECOVER/RISE. BY THIS EVENING AS THE FIRE
DANGER LOWERS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT STARTS PUSHING INTO OUR
NORTHERN CWA VEERING OUR NORTHWEST WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH
MILDER PACIFIC AIR ALOFT THERE WILL BE SHALLOW COLDER CANADIAN AIR
COMING THROUGH BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH STILL
EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE ALBERTA PROVINCE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
SUBFREEZING TONIGHT ACROSS ALL BUT SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS WHICH MAY STAY JUST ABOVE FREEZING. NORTHERLY WINDS AT
5-10 MPH MAY PRODUCE A WIND CHILL TONIGHT UNTIL GOING NEAR CALM
TOWARD SUNRISE. AS FAR AS DEVIATIONS FROM NBM, HAVE GONE DRIER WITH
THIS AFTERNOONS DEWPOINTS REVERTING TO OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST AND PRE-
FRONTAL WINDIER THAN NBM DEFAULT USING THE 90TH PERCENTILE WINDS.
NBM IS STILL WARM IN HANDING THE COLDER AIR MASS COMING THROUGH
TONIGHT SO USED THE COOLER CONSMOS GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT'S MINT.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
ELONGATED HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE DOWN THE NORTHERN & CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL BE SETTLING INTO OUR AREA FOR FRIDAY GRADUALLY SHIFTING LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS OUT OF THE EAST. MUCH COOLER AFTERNOON BUT
SEASONABLY NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN 50S. NBM STILL A BIT WARM SO USED
THE CONSMOS FOR FRIDAYS MAXT. AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS COULD PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX POPS ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH OVERNIGHT NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDERS
ALTHOUGH FOR NOW LIKELY TO STAY NORTH OF THE STATE LINE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING A BIT STRONGER ON SATURDAY BACKING WINDS NORTHERLY
AND BREEZY. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE A REPEATER FOR
SATURDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
NEAR-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH MAINTAINS NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION.
A MODERATING TREND IS THEN FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AS WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY AND RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THESE GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS AND DRY AIR COULD COMBINE TO BRING A RETURN OF FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA.
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR ON THE HORIZON FOR THE
NEXT 7-10 DAYS.
WARE
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 546 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
THE BREEZY WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH WINDS
CONTINUING TO VEER FROM WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY
THROUGH THE EVENING, AND THEN MORE EASTERLY ON FRIDAY MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN GENERAL, ALTHOUGH LOW VISIBILITY IN
SMOKE AND SMOKE ALOFT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS NEAR AND
DOWNWIND OF WILDFIRES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 30 53 33 52 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 29 53 29 54 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 35 58 37 59 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 24 51 21 51 / 0 10 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 25 47 28 51 / 0 10 10 0
DURANT OK 37 59 42 59 / 0 10 10 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004>047-050-
051.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...26
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