098
FXUS64 KOUN 210519
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1119 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1216 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
- COOLER, SEASONABLY NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH WIDESPREAD FREEZES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS.
- WARM, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL ENHANCE
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
FINALLY A BREAK FROM FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR TODAY. AN ELONGATED
AREA OF HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS WILL BE
BUILDING INTO OUR AREA TODAY WITH NORTHEAST WINDS VEERING EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. COLDER CANADIAN-BASED AIR COMING DOWN FROM
THE GREAT PLAINS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONABLY AVERAGE FOR
LATE FEBRUARY. NBM STILL RUNNING TOO WARM BIASED WITH THIS COLDER
AIR MASS SO WILL GO SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH THIS AFTERNOONS MAXT USING
THE CONSMOS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS TOWARD THE EVENING HOURS PUSHING A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS OUR
AREA BY MID-MORNING. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL STAY NORTH ACROSS KANSAS BUT COULD SEE THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF IT MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA NEAR THE STATE LINE. AS
A RESULT WILL HAVE VERY LOW POPS FOR -RA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN
ADDITIONAL MIX OF -SN FLAKES POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS OUR NORTH
NEAR THE OKLAHOMA/KANSAS STATE LINES. NBM DOING BETTER TONIGHT WITH
ITS WARM BIAS BUT WILL STILL GO SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH THE CONSMOS FOR
THE MINT IN THE FORECAST, ESPECIALLY SINCE RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY
BE ENHANCE THE COOLING BEFORE THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES
THROUGH TOWARD DAYLIGHT INCREASING NORTH WINDS.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
OUR BREAK FROM FIRE WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
ALTHOUGH EXPECTED TO RETURN EARLY IN THE LONG TERM. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE SEASONABLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH THE SHALLOW
COLDER CANADIAN AIR COMING DOWN THE GREAT PLAINS REINFORCED BY
SATURDAYS SURFACE BOUNDARY. COOLER BOTH DAYS WITH SUBFREEZING NIGHTS
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. NORTH WINDS MAY BE A BIT BREEZY BEHIND
SATURDAYS FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY BEFORE GOING LIGHT &
VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT. THE CALM WINDS UNDER HIGH SURFACE
PRESSURE AND CLEAR NIGHT SKIES WILL ENHANCE STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA DROPPING SUBFREEZING WITH LOWS IN THE 20S. WILL
ONLY TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NBM FOR SUNDAY'S MAXT USING THE
CONSRAW BUT NO DRASTIC DEVIATION.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
WARM, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH RISING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY
WINDS. WITH THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND RECEPTIVE/DRY
FUELS, FIRE WEATHER WILL BECOME AN INCREASING CONCERN ONCE AGAIN.
MONDAY WILL BE TRANSITION DAY WITH THE WARMEST WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST, WHERE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THE EARLIEST IN THE
DAY. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE CONFINED NEAR THE
100TH MERIDIAN ACROSS FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF
NORTH TEXAS--WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FORECAST.
BY TUESDAY, THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL EXPAND TO THE EAST
AND THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
IN THE HIGH PLAINS. AS A RESULT, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 70S TO
NEAR 80 DEG F (~15 DEG ABOVE-NORMAL) WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS.
EVEN WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS, MOISTURE ADVECTION APPEARS LIMITED
WITH AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 15 TO 30%. THIS
DRY RETURN FLOW (DRF) PATTERN WILL LIKELY SET THE STAGE FOR
ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
THE WARM, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH EVEN THE 10TH PERCENTILE OF PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
INDICATING TEMPERATURES ~10 TO 15 DEG ABOVE NORMAL. AS A RESULT,
AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON
WEDNESDAY.
BY THURSDAY, FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
A COLD FRONT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATES A ~25 DEG F SPREAD BETWEEN THE
10TH TO 90TH PERCENTILE. EVEN SO, THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS
TIME IS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA.
MAHALE
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS SPREAD INTO NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING BRINGING A LARGER BAND OF STRATUS AS FAR
NORTH AS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. IN GENERAL, THE CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY
040-050, BUT THERE ARE MVFR CEILINGS OF 020-025 AS FAR NORTH AS
KXBP (BRIDGEPORT TX) AND K0F2 (BOWIE TX) NORTHWEST OF THE DFW
METROPLEX THAT COULD SPREAD IN WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS TO
KDUA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING WITH
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS SPREADING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 28 50 27 55 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 28 52 25 58 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 32 56 28 58 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 22 51 21 56 / 10 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 28 49 24 50 / 20 0 0 0
DURANT OK 38 59 31 56 / 20 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...68
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...26
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