060
FXUS64 KOUN 211601
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1001 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 958 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
- COOL, SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH WIDESPREAD FREEZES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS.
- WARM, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BRING A
RETURN TO FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
COOL, SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH TONIGHT. AS A SURFACE
HIGH ADVANCES SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON. THE
STRENGTHENING SURFACE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. MODEST 850 MB FLOW (~25 TO 35 KNOTS) WILL
RESULT IN WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AS VERTICAL MIXING INCREASES
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER
40S AND 50S DEG F WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SOLAR INSOLATION
BEING THE PRIMARY IMPACTS TO TEMPERATURES.
MAHALE
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
LIGHTER WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND DRY AIR WILL PROVIDE AN EXCELLENT
ENVIRONMENT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, A
WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY--AT LEAST WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPERATURES--WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND 50S
DEG F WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE EXPECTED. WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS MAY REACH CLOSE TO 60 DEG F WITH WEAKER COLD AIR ADVECTION.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN SUNDAY GIVEN A WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENT. ANOTHER WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND DRY AIR.
MONDAY WILL BE TRANSITION DAY AS WINDS SHIFT TOWARD THE SOUTH AND
A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE WEST. AS A RESULT,
THE WARMEST WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST, WHERE WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THE EARLIEST IN THE DAY AND IN CLOSER PROXIMITY
TO THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL BE CONFINED NEAR THE 100TH MERIDIAN ACROSS FAR WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS (WHERE THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE FORECAST).
MAHALE
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
WARM, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA ON TUESDAY WITH RISING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS, BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS, AND THE EASTWARD EXPANSION OF THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
THROUGH DOWNSLOPE WARMING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S TO
NEAR 80 DEG F (~15 DEG ABOVE NORMAL).
WITH THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND RECEPTIVE/DRY FUELS, FIRE
WEATHER WILL BECOME AN INCREASING CONCERN. EVEN WITH THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS, MOISTURE ADVECTION APPEARS LIMITED WITH AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 15 TO 30%. THIS DRY RETURN FLOW
(DRF) PATTERN WILL LIKELY SET THE STAGE FOR AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR-
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
THE WARM, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH EVEN THE 10TH PERCENTILE OF PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
INDICATING TEMPERATURES ~15 TO 20 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL. AS A
RESULT, AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON
WEDNESDAY.
BY THURSDAY, COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. EVEN SO, THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO IS STILL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MAHALE
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 958 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTHERLY WINDS, GUSTY AT TIMES, ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL RELAX AFTER SUNSET AND WILL REMAIN AT 5-10 KT THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 50 27 51 24 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 52 24 54 24 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 56 28 58 28 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 52 20 52 20 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 48 23 48 19 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 57 31 56 28 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...13
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