879
FXUS64 KOUN 211832
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1232 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1230 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
- COOL, SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH WIDESPREAD FREEZES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS.
- WARM, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES COUPLED WITH BREEZY AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL BRING A RETURN TO FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
POST-FRONTAL BREEZY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AS TEMPERATURES RISE AND MIX DOWN 20-25 KNOT 850MB WINDS TO THE
SURFACE. EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MPH POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-40 AND INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
DIG SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA AND KEEP THE COOLER, SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50S IN PLACE FOR TODAY.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE SETTING SUN
AND LACK OF MIXING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS COUPLED WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO RADIATIONAL COOLING AND BELOW
FREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
SUNDAY WILL FEATURE A CONTINUED COOLER, SLIGHT BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50S (SIMILAR TO TODAY). WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER AS THE 850MB HIGH BRINGS WEAKER WINDS ALOFT OVER THE
AREA. EXPECT NORTH WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME
LOCALIZED BREEZES UP TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE, SPECIFICALLY ALONG AND EAST
OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THE VERY LIGHT WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST-
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES GIVING WAY TO ANOTHER
NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA.
MONDAY, WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SOUTH WITH WEAK TROUGHING
OVER THE ROCKIES GIVING WAY TO LOW-END BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH COMPRESSIONAL WARMING DUE TO A RETURN OF
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE
MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH SOME INCREASING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH AND SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
WARM, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA ON TUESDAY WITH RISING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS, BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS, AND THE EASTWARD EXPANSION OF THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
THROUGH DOWNSLOPE WARMING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S TO
NEAR 80 DEG F (~15 DEG ABOVE NORMAL).
WITH THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND RECEPTIVE/DRY FUELS, FIRE
WEATHER WILL BECOME AN INCREASING CONCERN. EVEN WITH THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS, MOISTURE ADVECTION APPEARS LIMITED WITH AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 15 TO 30%. THIS DRY RETURN FLOW
(DRF) PATTERN WILL LIKELY SET THE STAGE FOR AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR-
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
THE WARM, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH EVEN THE 10TH PERCENTILE OF PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
INDICATING TEMPERATURES ~15 TO 20 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL. AS A
RESULT, AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON
WEDNESDAY.
BY THURSDAY, COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. EVEN SO, THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO IS STILL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MAHALE
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 958 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTHERLY WINDS, GUSTY AT TIMES, ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL RELAX AFTER SUNSET AND WILL REMAIN AT 5-10 KT THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 29 49 24 54 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 25 52 23 57 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 29 56 27 60 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 20 49 21 60 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 24 47 19 50 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 31 53 27 55 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...13
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