972
FXUS64 KOUN 221643
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1043 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1041 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
- COOL, SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY A WITH
WIDESPREAD FREEZE TONIGHT.
- WARM, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES COUPLED WITH BREEZY AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL BRING A RETURN TO FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
A 1033 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH IN CLOSE PROXIMITY, THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED AND WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND A DRY AIR MASS HAS PROVIDED AN
EXCELLENT ENVIRONMENT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS MORNING. WITH
AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING, LOCAL TERRAIN/
THE PLANETARY BOUNDARY LAYER IS THE PRIMARY IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES. FOR LOCATIONS WHERE WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT/NEARLY
CALM (E.G., LOW-LYING SHELTERED AREAS), TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY
DROPPED DUE TO LESS VERTICAL MIXING. THEREFORE, THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE CHANGES IN SHORT DISTANCES THIS MORNING.
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TODAY WILL RESULT IN
NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO THE
MID 50S DEG F, WHICH IS NORMAL FOR MID TO LATE FEBRUARY.
MAHALE
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
ANOTHER WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WITH LIGHT WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND A DRY AIR MASS.
MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY TOWARD A WARMER SYNOPTIC-SCALE
PATTERN AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND
LEE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. AS A RESULT, WINDS
WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE SOUTH AND A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN TO THE WEST. THE WARMEST WEATHER WILL BE IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA
INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS, WHERE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH THE 60S DEG F. ELSEWHERE, 50S DEG F ARE EXPECTED. ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE 100TH MERIDIAN
ACROSS FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS,
WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS AND WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST.
BY TUESDAY, WARM, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THE EASTWARD
EXPANSION OF THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE THROUGH DOWNSLOPE
WARMING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEG F
(~15 DEG ABOVE NORMAL). A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW IN THE HIGH PLAINS WILL RESULT
IN GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.
EVEN WITH THE BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS, MOISTURE ADVECTION APPEARS
LIMITED WITH AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 15 TO 30%.
THIS DRY RETURN FLOW (DRF) PATTERN WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
ELEVATED TO LOCALLY NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND RECEPTIVE/DRY
FUELS, THE TOTAL FIRE ENVIRONMENT (WEATHER + FUELS) WILL BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO AT LEAST INITIAL ATTACK FIRES WITH SOME LARGE FIRE
POTENTIAL.
MAHALE
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
THE WARM, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY
AS THE DOWNSLOPE-WARMED AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE (AN ENSEMBLE OF BIAS-
CORRECTED MODELS) GIVES HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO GIVEN
EVEN THE COLDER END OF GUIDANCE (10TH PERCENTILE) IS ~15 DEG F
ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR LATE FEBRUARY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO
THE MID 80S DEG F, WHICH IS ~20 DEG F ABOVE-NORMAL.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER ON WEDNESDAY THAN ON TUESDAY
GIVEN A WEAKER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT, WHICH SHOULD TEMPER THE
FIRE WEATHER RISK. HOWEVER, RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL STILL BE LOW
ENOUGH THAT LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
BY THURSDAY, COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES BY
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH MOST OF THE SYNOPIC-SCALE ASCENT
PASSING TO THE NORTHEAST AND LIMITED MOISTURE, THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
WITH THE FRONT IS LOW (20% OR LESS). WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPERATURES, THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING WITH THE COLDER END OF PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE (10TH PERCENTILE) INDICATING ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN
THE FRONT'S WAKE. AS A RESULT OF NO APPRECIABLE COOL DOWN, BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS AND A DRIER, POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL INCREASE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN BY FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN
WITH LEE CYCLOGENESIS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. ANOTHER DRY RETURN FLOW
(DRF) SITUATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH AT LEAST
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES MARKEDLY BY NEXT WEEKEND AS
VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG COLD FRONT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS A RESULT, PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE HAS AN ~50
DEG F SPREAD BETWEEN THE 10TH AND 90TH PERCENTILE. FOR NOW, THE
FORECAST TRENDS COOLER LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO TREND EVEN COLDER IF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IS
STRONGER.
MAHALE
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AND SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE
WAY TO EXCELLENT FLYING CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 50 23 55 40 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 53 23 57 37 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 56 26 61 40 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 51 22 61 36 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 47 18 50 34 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 54 29 56 37 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...13
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