225
FXUS64 KOUN 221810
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1210 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1210 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
- COOL, SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY A WITH
WIDESPREAD FREEZE TONIGHT.
- WARM, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES COUPLED WITH BREEZY AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL BRING A RETURN TO FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TUESDAY AND LATE IN THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WHILE THE
MAIN STORY ACROSS THE COUNTRY IS THE EAST COAST STORM. SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS SLIGHTLY DECREASED FROM YESTERDAY, BUT IS
STILL STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20-25 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS CONTINUE TO ADVECT SLIGHTLY DRIER
DEWPOINTS INTO OKLAHOMA, WHICH CONTINUES TO DRY OUT ALREADY CURED
DORMANT GRASS.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX A BIT AFTER SUNSET, LEAVING US WITH
MUCH OF THE SAME TYPE OF CONDITIONS AS WHAT WE SAW FOR EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE END RESULT WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS, AND
ANOTHER MORNING WELL BELOW FREEZING.
FOX
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
WHILE THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE BEEN QUITE NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY
STANDARDS, IT HAS FELT QUITE COLD BECAUSE OF AN EXTREMELY WARM
START OF THE MONTH. AFTER ONE MORE CLOSE TO NORMAL MONDAY, THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO JUMP BACK INTO THE 70S BY TUESDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS MEANS THE WINDS WILL JUMP UP AS WELL, OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AT 10-25 MPH...AND EVEN A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. SEE THE
FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR A FEW MORE GEEKY DETAILS ON THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST CONDITIONS.
FOX
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
THE WARM, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY
AS THE DOWNSLOPE-WARMED AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE (AN ENSEMBLE OF BIAS-
CORRECTED MODELS) GIVES HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO GIVEN
EVEN THE COLDER END OF GUIDANCE (10TH PERCENTILE) IS ~15 DEG F
ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR LATE FEBRUARY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO
THE MID 80S DEG F, WHICH IS ~20 DEG F ABOVE-NORMAL.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER ON WEDNESDAY THAN ON TUESDAY
GIVEN A WEAKER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT, WHICH SHOULD TEMPER THE
FIRE WEATHER RISK. HOWEVER, RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL STILL BE LOW
ENOUGH THAT LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
BY THURSDAY, COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES BY
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH MOST OF THE SYNOPIC-SCALE ASCENT
PASSING TO THE NORTHEAST AND LIMITED MOISTURE, THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
WITH THE FRONT IS LOW (20% OR LESS). WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPERATURES, THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING WITH THE COLDER END OF PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE (10TH PERCENTILE) INDICATING ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN
THE FRONT'S WAKE. AS A RESULT OF NO APPRECIABLE COOL DOWN, BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS AND A DRIER, POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL INCREASE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN BY FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN
WITH LEE CYCLOGENESIS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. ANOTHER DRY RETURN FLOW
(DRF) SITUATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH AT LEAST
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES MARKEDLY BY NEXT WEEKEND AS
VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG COLD FRONT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS A RESULT, PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE HAS AN ~50
DEG F SPREAD BETWEEN THE 10TH AND 90TH PERCENTILE. FOR NOW, THE
FORECAST TRENDS COOLER LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO TREND EVEN COLDER IF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IS
STRONGER.
MAHALE
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AND SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE
WAY TO EXCELLENT FLYING CONDITIONS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
TUESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE THE MAIN DAYS TO WATCH FOR FIRE WEATHER,
ALTHOUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WON'T BE TOO FAR BEHIND.
FOR TUESDAY:
TEMPERATURES JUMP BACK INTO THE 70S, AND WILL BE CLOSE TO 80 IN
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS, AS WELL AS NEAR THE 100TH MERIDIAN. WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 20 MPH SUSTAINED, WITH GUSTS OVER 35...AGAIN IN
THE WESTERN THIRD OF OUR AREA. ERC PERCENTILES ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 80TH TO 90TH PERCENTILE, ONCE AGAIN BRINGING AT LEAST
ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS. WILL THIS TUESDAY BE LIKE A WEEK AGO?
NO. THE WINDS WON'T BE AS STRONG AND THE DEWPOINTS WERE MUCH LOWER
THAN A WEEK AGO. DESPITE THE FAVORABLE COMPARISON TO LAST WEEK,
THIS TUESDAY WILL BE CONCERNING.
SOME DIFFERENCES FROM A WEEK AGO:
- THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AND STRONGEST WINDS WON'T LINE UP
OVER EACH OTHER LIKE THEY DID ON THE 17TH
- THE JET STREAM WILL BE MUCH WEAKER ON TUESDAY THAN WHAT WE SAW
ON THE 17TH
FOR THURSDAY - SATURDAY:
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM, ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY "COOLER" THAN TUESDAY,
AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE FEBRUARY. HOWEVER, THE WINDS WILL
HAVE SHIFTED DIRECTION BY THEN, ADVECTING DRIER AIR INTO THE
PICTURE. WHILE THERE COULD BE A SCATTERED SHOWER OR TWO LATE
WEDNESDAY THAT MAY HELP, THE AMOUNTS AND/OR LIMITED COVERAGE WON'T
BE ENOUGH TO SPARE THE WESTERN THIRD ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY.
ERC VALUES WILL BE IN THE 85-95TH PERCENTILES ON THURSDAY, WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER WIND SPEEDS. EITHER WAY, THIS WILL BRING AT LEAST
ELEVATED CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. WHAT WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR IS
THE TIMING OF THAT NEXT COLD FRONT, AS THE TIMING WILL CAUSE A FEW
ISSUES IF THE CURRENT FORECAST (OF THE WIND SHIFT) IS OFF BY MORE
THAN ABOUT 3-4 HOURS.
THE GEFS CIPS ANALOGS ALSO HINT AT THIS, AS THE ENSEMBLE OUTPUT
HAS MOST OF ITS MEMBERS WITH A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AS COMPARED TO THE GFS DETERMINISTIC RUN.
FOX
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 23 55 40 71 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 23 57 37 74 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 26 61 40 77 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 22 61 36 76 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 18 50 34 69 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 29 56 37 70 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...13
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