490
FXUS64 KOUN 230826
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
226 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 220 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
- AFTER A WIDESPREAD FREEZE THIS MORNING, SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
- WARM, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES COUPLED WITH BREEZY AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL BRING A RETURN TO FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TUESDAY AND LATE IN THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
A 1037 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS
MORNING, WHICH IS RESULTING IN LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS.
THESE LIGHT WINDS, COMBINED WITH A DRY AIR MASS, HAS RESULTED
ANOTHER WIDESPREAD FREEZE THIS MORNING.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND LEE
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS EAST OF THE ROCKIES, WINDS WILL SHIFT TOWARD
THE SOUTH WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS TO THE WEST. THIS SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN WILL BEGIN
A WARMING TREND TODAY. THE WARMEST WEATHER WILL BE ALONG THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS, WHERE AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE 60S DEG F. ELSEWHERE, SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S DEG F WILL CONTINUE.
MAHALE
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN AN APPRECIABLY WARMER NIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 DEG F.
WARM, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND THE
EASTWARD EXPANSION OF THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE THROUGH
DOWNSLOPE WARMING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80
DEG F, WHICH IS AROUND 15 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE FEBRUARY.
A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW IN THE HIGH PLAINS WILL TIGHTEN SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT, WHICH WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
THE GUSTIEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-44,
WHERE THE TIGHTEST SURFACE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED. VERTICAL MIXING
TO ~850 MB (30 TO 35 KNOT FLOW) WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS AROUND
30 TO 35 MPH.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK INTO
NORTH TEXAS. AS A RESULT, THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX
AND THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER FOR WEDNESDAY. WARM, ABOVE-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS
CHANGE EXPECTED. IT MIGHT BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO
WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA DUE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE COUNTERCLOCKWISE CIRCULATION AROUND THE
SURFACE LOW.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES BY THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH MOST OF
THE SYNOPIC-SCALE ASCENT PASSING TO THE NORTHEAST AND LIMITED
MOISTURE, THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH THE FRONT IS ONLY 20% TO 30%
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
MAHALE
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS IS
EXPECTED IN THE FRONT'S WAKE ON THURSDAY. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THIS
FRONT IS NOT TOO COLD FOR FEBRUARY WITH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO BEHIND IT WITH DOWNSLOPE-WARMING MODIFYING
THE AIR MASS. WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN BY FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS RETURN WITH LEE CYCLOGENESIS EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES MARKEDLY BY THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
THE FOLLOWING WEEK WITH A LARGE SPREAD AMONG DETERMINISTIC MODELS
AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A STRONG COLD
COULD POTENTIALLY BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. AS A
RESULT, PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE HAS AN ~40 TO 50 DEG F SPREAD
BETWEEN THE 10TH AND 90TH PERCENTILES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR
NOW, THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TRENDS COOLER LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL TO TREND EVEN COLDER IF
THE FRONT IS STRONGER.
MAHALE
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 947 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
PERIOD. AFTER AN OVERNIGHT OF LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS,
A RETURN TOWARDS A MORE DOMINANT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION IS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY. OCCASIONAL GUSTS >20 KTS ARE ALSO FORECAST
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AS A SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHARPENS
INTO THE AFTERNOON.
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BECOME A CONCERN AFTER 03 UTC/TUESDAY,
AS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET CORE DEVELOPS AND SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS
THE AREA. OUTSIDE OF KWWR, THIS CONCERN SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED
UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THE CURRENT VALID PERIOD.
SAFE TRAVELS!
UNGAR
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 220 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
ON TUESDAY, ELEVATED TO LOCALLY NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO 70S TO NEAR 80 DEG F AS THE LOW-LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE EXPANDS EASTWARD. THESE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 15 TO
30%. A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT, WHICH WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THE
GUSTIEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-44, WHERE
VERTICAL MIXING TO ~850 MB (30 TO 35 KNOT FLOW) WILL RESULT IN
WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 TO 35 MPH.
WITH THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND RECEPTIVE/DRY FUELS
(I.E., ERC-G 75TH TO 90 PERCENTILES), THE TOTAL FIRE ENVIRONMENT
(WEATHER + FUELS) WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO AT LEAST INITIAL ATTACK
FIRES WITH SOME LARGE FIRE POTENTIAL. CURRENTLY, THE WORST FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS (E.G., THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE NEAR-
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS) ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS, WHERE THE LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND STRONGEST
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO OVERLAP.
ON WEDNESDAY, A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.
ON THURSDAY, BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS IN A DRIER, POST-FRONTAL AIR
MASS WILL INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
ON FRIDAY, A DRY RETURN FLOW (DRF) PATTERN IS POSSIBLE WITH AT
LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS WARMER WEATHER RETURNS.
EVEN WITH THE BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS, MOISTURE ADVECTION APPEARS
LIMITED WITH AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 15 TO
25.
MAHALE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 54 39 70 45 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 56 38 74 41 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 60 40 77 49 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 59 37 76 36 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 49 34 69 40 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 55 36 70 52 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...09
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