361
FXUS64 KOUN 241202
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
602 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 556 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
- A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY DUE TO ELEVATED TO
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
- WARM TEMPERATURES, COUPLED WITH BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS, WILL
LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND A COLD FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME PRECIPITATION.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
DESPITE A RATHER DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE (SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
20S), THE WIND WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM COOLING INTO THE 20S. A 45-50 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL WEAKEN
SOME AFTER 9 AM, BUT ENOUGH MIXING WILL OCCUR THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING, FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF 40 TO 45 MPH WIND GUSTS. THESE
WINDS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
BY EARLY AFTERNOON, THE STRONGER WINDS GUSTS (30+ MPH) ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A
STILLWATER TO ALTUS LINE. WITH VERY RECEPTIVE FUELS FOR FIRES
(ERCS 70-89TH PERCENTILE), LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
CREATE AN ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE ENVIRONMENT. A FEW
MITIGATING FACTORS FOR FIRE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LIGHTER
WIND SPEEDS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEAST FROM OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL SHIFT SURFACE WINDS TO A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA. AHEAD OF THE LOW,
SURFACE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE, WHICH WILL PROVIDE
VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT RH RECOVERY OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
VERY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY, THE WIND WILL REMAIN RATHER
LIGHT DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE.
ON THURSDAY, AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY DURING THE MORNING, BUT SHOULD RELAX
SOME DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WHERE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, BUT PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE DIVERGES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH A PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THE CURRENT TIMING OF THE FRONT IS
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WITH THE
FRONT STALLING ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA NORTHERN TEXAS ON SUNDAY.
THE AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT APPEARS RATHER COLD, BUT
SHALLOW, SO THERE IS CERTAINLY A CHANCE THE FRONT WILL PUSH
FARTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENT GUIDANCE. THE MID-LEVEL FLOW IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH AT LEAST
ONE DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS MAY
RESULT IN RAIN AND PERHAPS ELEVATED STORMS, MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE AND HOPE MUCH NEEDED PRECIPITATION OCCURS WITH THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY CURRENTLY APPEAR TO BE MORE PROBLEMATIC WITH
RESPECT WITH FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A SOUTHERLY WIND IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY, BUT HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER WITH A
MODEST SOUTHERLY WIND. CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY WILL HELP ALLEVIATE
FIRE CONCERNS ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-MORNING
WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THESE
WIND GUSTS DECREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
MAHALE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 71 45 75 49 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 74 42 76 46 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 78 50 79 50 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 78 37 76 41 / 0 0 0 10
PONCA CITY OK 69 40 72 45 / 0 0 0 20
DURANT OK 70 52 78 53 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR OKZ004>031-033>042-044>046.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...06
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...10
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