113
FXUS64 KOUN 241743
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1143 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1129 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
- A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY DUE TO ELEVATED TO
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
- WARM TEMPERATURES, COUPLED WITH BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS, WILL
LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND A COLD FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME PRECIPITATION.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
DESPITE A RATHER DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE (SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
20S), THE WIND WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM COOLING INTO THE 20S. A 45-50 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL WEAKEN
SOME AFTER 9 AM, BUT ENOUGH MIXING WILL OCCUR THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING, FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF 40 TO 45 MPH WIND GUSTS. THESE
WINDS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
BY EARLY AFTERNOON, THE STRONGER WINDS GUSTS (30+ MPH) ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A
STILLWATER TO ALTUS LINE. WITH VERY RECEPTIVE FUELS FOR FIRES
(ERCS 70-89TH PERCENTILE), LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
CREATE AN ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE ENVIRONMENT. A FEW
MITIGATING FACTORS FOR FIRE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LIGHTER
WIND SPEEDS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEAST FROM OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL SHIFT SURFACE WINDS TO A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA. AHEAD OF THE LOW,
SURFACE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE, WHICH WILL PROVIDE
VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT RH RECOVERY OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
VERY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY, THE WIND WILL REMAIN RATHER
LIGHT DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE.
ON THURSDAY, AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY DURING THE MORNING, BUT SHOULD RELAX
SOME DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WHERE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, BUT PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE DIVERGES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH A PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THE CURRENT TIMING OF THE FRONT IS
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WITH THE
FRONT STALLING ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA NORTHERN TEXAS ON SUNDAY.
THE AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT APPEARS RATHER COLD, BUT
SHALLOW, SO THERE IS CERTAINLY A CHANCE THE FRONT WILL PUSH
FARTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENT GUIDANCE. THE MID-LEVEL FLOW IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH AT LEAST
ONE DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS MAY
RESULT IN RAIN AND PERHAPS ELEVATED STORMS, MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE AND HOPE MUCH NEEDED PRECIPITATION OCCURS WITH THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY CURRENTLY APPEAR TO BE MORE PROBLEMATIC WITH
RESPECT WITH FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A SOUTHERLY WIND IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY, BUT HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER WITH A
MODEST SOUTHERLY WIND. CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY WILL HELP ALLEVIATE
FIRE CONCERNS ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
ALL OF OUR TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN IN A VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD WITH ONLY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS. A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW LEE OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES WILL MAINTAIN
GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 20-25 KTS
GUSTING AT 30-35 KTS THROUGH 00Z. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BACK MORE
SOUTH AFTER 00Z AT 5-10 KTS WITH DIMINISHING GUSTS. A LOW-LEVEL
JET WILL INCREASE ALIGNED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WITH ITS MAXIMUM
EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN & EASTERN TEXAS. AS A RESULT HAVE
POTENTIAL LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS BY 04Z AT OUR TWO MOST
SOUTHERN TERMINALS NEAR THE RED RIVER (KDUA & KSPS). THE
AFOREMENTIONED LEE LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS MOST OF OUR
TERMINALS BETWEEN 09-15Z SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH AROUND
10-15 KTS. THE FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH TERMINAL
KDUA IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA UNTIL AFTER THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 71 45 74 48 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 74 41 76 45 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 78 50 79 49 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 79 37 73 40 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 69 40 70 45 / 0 0 0 10
DURANT OK 70 52 77 51 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004>042-
044>046.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...06
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...68
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