655
FXUS64 KOUN 241824
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1224 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1217 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
- A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY DUE TO ELEVATED TO
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
- WARM TEMPERATURES, COUPLED WITH BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS, WILL
LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND A COLD FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME PRECIPITATION.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ONGOING ACROSS OUR FA, WITH A
SURFACE LOW POSITIONED OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND HIGH PRESSURE ALONG
THE FLORIDA GULF COAST. WIDESPREAD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25
MPH AND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS MECHANICAL
MIXING TAPS INTO THE LLJ. ALSO NOTED IS SUBSTANTIAL DRYING ON LOW-LEVEL
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS,
WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ONGOING DOWNSLOPING WINDS.
THESE ARE THE AREAS WHERE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED THIS
AFTERNOON, AND WE HAVE RAISED FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER PARTS
OF FAR WESTERN, SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
ALSO OBSERVED IS A PLUME OF HIGHER MOISTURE WITH NEAR 30 DEG DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES ADVECTING INTO PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTH-
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND LEAD TO A MOISTURE GRADIENT NEAR THE I-44
CORRIDOR. THE WEATHER CONDITIONS DESCRIBED ABOVE, COUPLED WITH ANOMALOUSLY
DRY VEGETATION, WILL GENERATE ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ALONG
A ZONE FROM WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TO EAST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT THE CURRENT STATE OF VEGETATIVE FUEL LOADING HAS BEEN
DETERMINED, IN COLLABORATION WITH STATE FORESTRY PARTNERS, TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL TO EXCEPTIONAL. SO, EVEN WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
OVER THE COMING DAYS, VEGETATION WILL BE QUITE VULNERABLE TO FIRE STARTS.
THE RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL RELAX THIS EVENING AS A SURFACE LOW DESCENDS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE FROM SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO, AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL RECOVER
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS NOT RISING ABOVE 30% UNTIL DAWN ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE,
AS THE SURFACE LOW PROGRESSES ACROSS AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS
OKLAHOMA, WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH FOR ABOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF
OKLAHOMA.
THOMPSON
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW IS PROG'D
TO BE OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND THIS FEATURE WILL REACH NORTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS AT 5 TO 15 MPH WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST
BY AFTERNOON AND WEAK CAA WILL LEAD TO SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS OVER
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER-60'S
(NORTH OK) TO UPPER-70'S (SOUTHERN AREAS). WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS AND
SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LOW FOR WEDNESDAY.
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THEN ARRIVES IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING, AND COOLER (THOUGH STILL ABOVE-AVERAGE) TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY. LIGHT RAIN CHANCES HAVE GONE DOWN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. THE OVERALL FIRE RISK IS LOW, BUT FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
OKLAHOMA/ADJACENT NORTH TEXAS COULD SEE RH-DRIVEN ELEVATED CONDITIONS
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THOMPSON
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, BUT PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE DIVERGES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH A PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THE CURRENT TIMING OF THE FRONT IS
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WITH THE
FRONT STALLING ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA NORTHERN TEXAS ON SUNDAY.
THE AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT APPEARS RATHER COLD, BUT
SHALLOW, SO THERE IS CERTAINLY A CHANCE THE FRONT WILL PUSH
FARTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENT GUIDANCE. THE MID-LEVEL FLOW IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH AT LEAST
ONE DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS MAY
RESULT IN RAIN AND PERHAPS ELEVATED STORMS, MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE AND HOPE MUCH NEEDED PRECIPITATION OCCURS WITH THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY CURRENTLY APPEAR TO BE MORE PROBLEMATIC WITH
RESPECT WITH FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A SOUTHERLY WIND IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY, BUT HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER WITH A
MODEST SOUTHERLY WIND. CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY WILL HELP ALLEVIATE
FIRE CONCERNS ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
ALL OF OUR TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN IN A VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD WITH ONLY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS. A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW LEE OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES WILL MAINTAIN
GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 20-25 KTS
GUSTING AT 30-35 KTS THROUGH 00Z. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BACK MORE
SOUTH AFTER 00Z AT 5-10 KTS WITH DIMINISHING GUSTS. A LOW-LEVEL
JET WILL INCREASE ALIGNED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WITH ITS MAXIMUM
EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN & EASTERN TEXAS. AS A RESULT HAVE
POTENTIAL LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS BY 04Z AT OUR TWO MOST
SOUTHERN TERMINALS NEAR THE RED RIVER (KDUA & KSPS). THE
AFOREMENTIONED LEE LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS MOST OF OUR
TERMINALS BETWEEN 09-15Z SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH AROUND
10-15 KTS. THE FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH TERMINAL
KDUA IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA UNTIL AFTER THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 45 74 48 70 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 41 76 45 71 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 50 79 49 76 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 37 73 40 68 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 40 70 45 68 / 0 0 10 0
DURANT OK 52 77 51 76 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004>042-
044>046.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...68
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