452
FXUS64 KOUN 251140
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
540 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 536 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026
- WARM TEMPERATURES, COUPLED WITH BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS, WILL
LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND A COLD FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME PRECIPITATION.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026
A SURFACE LOW, LOCATED IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE, WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTHERN TEXAS THIS MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS, SURFACE WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. STREAMLINES SHOW THE SURFACE FLOW BECOMING
MORE EAST AND SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ADVECT
HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR INTO OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE
ADDED MOISTURE AND LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TODAY WILL KEEP THE
FIRE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT MUTED COMPARED TO TUESDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S, WHICH IS ABOUT 15 DEGREE ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR LATE FEBRUARY.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 142 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND WILL BRING A NORTHERLY FLOW TO ALL AREAS BY
THURSDAY MORNING. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED WITH THE COLD
FRONT, BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DROPPING TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY
(PERHAPS 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY). MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT
MAY KEEP WINDS A LITTLE GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT HUMIDITY
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 25 TO 30 PERCENT. THEREFORE, SPOTTY
AREAS OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER MAY OCCUR FOR A FEW HOURS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN
TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT, SO THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WITH
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING, VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERY
IS ANTICIPATED WITH SOME AREAS OF DEW POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY MORNING. A
FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
WHICH WOULD PREVENT IDEAL COOLING BY FRIDAY MORNING.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE RECENT WIND
SHIFTS HAVE DONE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVECTING REALLY DRY AIR INTO
THE REGION OR AREAS TO OUR SOUTH. SO, ALTHOUGH FRIDAY WILL BE A
RETURN FLOW DAY, IT WILL NOT BE OVERLY DRY. HOWEVER, A GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WIND AND FAIRLY LOW HUMIDITY WILL ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026
THE LAST DAY OF FEBRUARY WILL NOT FEEL LIKE LATE WINTER, AS
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. NOT ONLY
WILL IT BE VERY WARM, BUT THERE WILL BE A HINT OF HUMIDITY IN THE
AIR, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS.
HOWEVER, GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HOW QUICKLY THE
SHALLOW, COLDER AIR OVERSPREADS OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS IS
UNCERTAIN. THIS UNCERTAINTY IS PRODUCING A 40 DEGREE SPREAD IN
HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR OKLAHOMA CITY SUNDAY. FOR EXAMPLE,
THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE PREDICTS A HIGH OF 85 DEGREE WHILE THE
LOWER SIDE IS 45 DEGREES. TYPICALLY, THESE SHALLOW AIRMASSES WILL
ARRIVE EARLIER THAN MODELS SUGGEST. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH A
BLEND OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS, BUT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF LATER
FORECAST TREND COOLER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS ALONG WITH A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH
WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF RAIN AND PERHAPS ELEVATED STORMS. THE
GOOD NEWS IS WE ARE FINALLY MENTIONING A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AS A SURFACE LOW
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS. THE EXCEPTION
IS AT KDUA, WHERE WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, WHICH WILL SHIFT
THE WINDS BACK TO THE NORTH TONIGHT.
MAHALE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 75 47 71 43 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 77 45 74 41 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 79 49 76 45 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 75 39 71 38 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 72 43 69 38 / 0 10 0 0
DURANT OK 78 51 76 46 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...06
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...10
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