101
FXUS64 KOUN 251936
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
136 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 133 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
- ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND
- A COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY ALONG WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
- A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BRING HIGHER AND WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
THE WEAK SURFACE LOW HAS MOVED VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THIS
MORNING, AND IS CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR BOWIE TX. AS A RESULT,
OBSERVATION MAPS SHOW LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST WINDS OVER MOST OF OUR OKLAHOMA COUNTIES.
AS A RESULT, THE CYCLONIC FLOW HAS ADVECTED A MORE MOIST AIR MASS
INTO THE AREA. MESONET OBS SHOW DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN
INTO THE LOW 50'S OVER SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA
AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70'S. A WEAK
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA THIS EVENING, MARKED WITH A BRIEF INCREASE
IN GUSTY NORTH WINDS, AND EXITS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN
CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVE DROPPED TO LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.
THOMPSON
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
THE SURFACE HIGH THEN TRANSLATES ACROSS KANSAS AND LIGHT/MODERATE
NORTH WINDS AT 5 TO 15 MPH ALONG WITH WEAK CAA WILL KEEP HIGHS
NEAR 70 DEG OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70'S OVER FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) WILL DECREASE TO 20 TO 25
PERCENT OVER PART OF NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA, BUT WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT. THEREFORE, THE FIRE WEATHER RISK HAS DECREASED AND EXPECTED
TO BE LOW.
LIGHT WINDS BEGIN TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REACHES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE
RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS, WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY,
WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70'S. RH VALUES WITHIN THE 20 TO
30% RANGE WILL BE COMMON BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE H500 SPEED
MAXIMA PASSING SOUTH OF OUR FA, S/SE WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS UP TO 15 MPH OVER NORTHWEST AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THEREFORE, THE ELEVATED FIRE RISK ON FRIDAY APPEARS
LOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS, IN THIS REGARD.
THOMPSON
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026
THE LAST DAY OF FEBRUARY WILL NOT FEEL LIKE LATE WINTER, AS
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. NOT ONLY
WILL IT BE VERY WARM, BUT THERE WILL BE A HINT OF HUMIDITY IN THE
AIR, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS.
HOWEVER, GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HOW QUICKLY THE
SHALLOW, COLDER AIR OVERSPREADS OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS IS
UNCERTAIN. THIS UNCERTAINTY IS PRODUCING A 40 DEGREE SPREAD IN
HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR OKLAHOMA CITY SUNDAY. FOR EXAMPLE,
THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE PREDICTS A HIGH OF 85 DEGREE WHILE THE
LOWER SIDE IS 45 DEGREES. TYPICALLY, THESE SHALLOW AIRMASSES WILL
ARRIVE EARLIER THAN MODELS SUGGEST. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH A
BLEND OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS, BUT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF LATER
FORECAST TREND COOLER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS ALONG WITH A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH
WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF RAIN AND PERHAPS ELEVATED STORMS. THE
GOOD NEWS IS WE ARE FINALLY MENTIONING A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026
ALL TERMINALS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE LOW STRATUS COULD DEVELOP AND/OR A 30%
PROBABILITY FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AFTER 09Z WHICH COULD
IMPACT TERMINAL KDUA. A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA
WILL KEEP SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT & VARIABLE IN DIRECTION
THROUGH 06Z. A COLD FRONT STARTS PUSHING NORTH TO SOUTH BETWEEN
06-15Z INCREASING SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH AROUND 10-15 KTS
ACROSS ALL OF OUR TERMINALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 47 71 43 76 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 45 74 41 76 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 49 76 45 78 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 39 71 38 77 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 43 69 38 77 / 10 0 0 0
DURANT OK 51 76 46 76 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...68
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