166
FXUS64 KOUN 260758
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
158 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 145 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
- ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL ALSO
INCREASE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT.
- A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BRING HIGHER AND WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL SKIRT NORTHERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE
WILL YIELD SOME LIGHT RADAR ECHOS, BUT RATHER DRY AIR BELOW CLOUD
BASE SHOULD LIMIT ANY PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE GROUND. BY
SUNRISE THURSDAY, THIS FEATURE WILL BE WELL EAST OF OKLAHOMA.
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH HUMIDITY OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA MAY RESULT
IN PATCHY AREAS OF FOG, BUT ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, OR AT
LEAST THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. WITH VERY
LITTLE COLD ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT, HIGHS TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY'S HIGHS.
ONE THING TO WATCH DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE DEEPER MIXING ACROSS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND PERHAPS CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE STATE. IF
DEEPER MIXING OCCURS, STRONGER AFTERNOON GUSTS MAY DEVELOP (25-30
MPH) AND AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER. THIS COULD
RESULT IN AN HOUR OR TWO OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AT
THIS TIME WILL STICK WITH LESS MIXING AND LOWER WIND GUSTS.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT, AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WHICH WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. OTHER AREAS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF COOLING QUICKLY
WITH PERHAPS A CHANCE OF SHALLOW GROUND FOG BY FRIDAY MORNING.
A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH A MODEST INCREASE
IN NEAR-SURFACE MOISTURE. ALTHOUGH THE WIND MAY GUSTS TO 25 MPH
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA FRIDAY AFTERNOON, HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR NEAR 25 PERCENT.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
PREVAIL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
TO NEAR RECORD VALUES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT FORCING MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
WITH SUNDAY BEING THE FIRST DAY OF MARCH, IT SEEMS FITTING THAT WE
WILL HAVE A CHANGE IN OUR WEATHER. THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE SUNDAY
WILL BE A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. CURRENTLY, IT APPEARS THE
FRONT SHOULD AT LEAST MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE FRONT REACHING SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHERN TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE DETERMINISTIC
GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA BY 6 PM SUNDAY WHILE
OTHER MODELS ARE SLOWER. BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN AND EVENTUALLY ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS. CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA SHOULD SEE THIS PATTERN EMERGE FIRST (BETTER
MOISTURE DEPTH) WHILE WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS HAVE
LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES. NATURALLY, THE FRONTAL TIMING AND
MOVEMENT WILL AUGMENT THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY
PRECIPITATION. ON MONDAY, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE AS
THE DEPTH OF A MOIST, STABLE LAYER DECREASES.
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY, AS AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
FROM THE WEST. HOW FAR MOISTURE IS DISPLACED INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
TEXAS WITH THE COLD FRONT MONDAY WILL INFLUENCE HOW FAR THE WARM
SECTOR WILL RETURN INTO NORTHERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. REGARDLESS, IT APPEARS BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDWEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE, BUT HAS YET TO MAKE
IT TO THE FAR NORTHWESTERN AIRPORTS. THAT WILL CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, AS NORTHWEST WINDS BEGIN TO SPILL ACROSS THE AREA.
VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES, EXCEPT MAYBE DUA. SOME LOW
CLOUDS MAY MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE RED RIVER COUNTIES TOWARDS
DAYBREAK.
FOX
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 72 45 75 51 / 0 0 0 10
HOBART OK 74 44 76 48 / 0 10 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 78 46 79 52 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 72 40 77 42 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 70 39 77 46 / 0 0 0 10
DURANT OK 78 46 77 51 / 0 0 0 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...06
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...21
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