170
FXUS64 KOUN 131905
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
205 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 152 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
- COLDER TEMPERATURES AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND A COLD FRONT SUNDAY, WITH GUSTS OF 50-60 MPH POSSIBLE.
- NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER POSSIBLE SUNDAY DUE TO
STRONG WINDS.
- A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILL VALUES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
- DRY WEATHER PERSISTS WITH NEAR-RECORD HEAT POSSIBLE BY THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT, WILL
BUILD WELL NORTH AND EAST OF OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
AS THIS OCCURS, THE SURFACE FLOW WILL ADVECT HIGHER THETA-E AIR INTO
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THE WIND WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE OVERNIGHT, BUT THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS UP. FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
WILL SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES AS DRIER AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THIS AREA.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
VERY WARM TO ALMOST HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
CURRENTLY, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS FAR
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON, AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN KANSAS/NEBRASKA. A FEW MODELS
SUGGEST DEEPER MIXING MAY OCCUR ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. IF THIS OCCURS, A NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER ENVIRONMENT MAY DEVELOP FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 90
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TO THE LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE.
A GUSTY SOUTHERLY WIND AND A RATHER MILD AIR MASS WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY NEAR AVERAGE HIGHS FOR MID
MARCH. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE FAR NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE LIGHTER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
SUNDAY....
STRONG WINDS:
VERY STRONG WINDS, PERHAPS DAMAGING, WILL DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD
FRONT SUNDAY. CURRENTLY, IT APPEAR THE FRONT WILL ENTER FAR
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY AND WILL CLEAR OUR FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES (ATOKA AND BRYAN) BY 3 PM. WINDS MAY GUSTS OVER
60 MPH LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS. A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ROUGHLY THE
WESTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS.
FIRE WEATHER:
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH AND GUSTS TO 60+
MPH, AN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY EVOLVE
BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. PERHAPS A MITIGATING FACTOR WILL
BE FALLING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
AND WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY NOT REACH
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS UNTIL THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE, THIS AREA MAY BECOME MORE RECEPTIVE TO THE
START AND RAPID SPREAD OF FIRE. ALTHOUGH THE STRONG WIND GUSTS
WILL DIMINISH SOME DURING THE EVENING, THE WIND WILL REMAIN VERY
BRISK AND GUSTY.
WINTER WEATHER:
THERE IS A VERY LOW PROBABILITY (10-20%) OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NO ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED, BUT THE STRONG WINDS AND SOME SNOW MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITY AT TIMES.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...
A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA TO UPPER TEENS IN SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE AND NORTHERN
TEXAS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 134 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
MONDAY MORNING WILL START OFF QUITE CHILLY, WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS
AND TWENTIES ACROSS THE AREA, REBOUNDING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS AND A SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK,
WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY SOARING TOWARDS RECORDS BY THE MIDDLE TO
END OF NEXT WEEK. IN FACT, NBM90TH PERCENTILE TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE UPPER 90S ALONG AND WEST OF I-35 THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND NEAR 105
DEGREES IN SOUTHWEST OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX. THESE VALUES WOULD
BREAK THE HIGHEST MARCH MAX TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT EACH OF OUR
CLIMATE SITES AND, WHILE UNLIKELY TO OCCUR, SHOW HOW ANOMALOUSLY
WARM THE AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO BE. WITH SUCH A HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS, EACH DAY NEXT WEEK WILL ALSO FEATURE AT LEAST
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA.
WARE
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS. HOWEVER, THERE IS CURRENTLY
A LOW CHANCE THAT MVFR CEILINGS MAY MOVE INTO KDUA SATURDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW AS A SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 47 81 58 67 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 43 84 54 64 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 47 87 63 73 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 40 83 42 52 / 0 0 0 20
PONCA CITY OK 44 80 51 62 / 0 0 0 10
DURANT OK 51 79 61 75 / 0 0 0 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
OKZ004>030-033>040-044-045.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR OKZ004>006-009>011-014>019-021>025-027>029-033>039-044-
045.
TX...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
TXZ083>090.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...06
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...25
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