291
FXUS64 KOUN 141132
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
632 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 626 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
- COLDER TEMPERATURES AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND
A COLD FRONT SUNDAY, WITH GUSTS OF 50-60 MPH EXPECTED.
- NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER POSSIBLE SUNDAY DUE TO
STRONG WINDS.
- A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILL VALUES IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
- DRY WEATHER PERSISTS WITH NEAR-RECORD HEAT POSSIBLE BY THE END
OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY AS A TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INDUCES
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 20 TO 25
MPH AT TIMES. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE POSITIONED OVERHEAD. A COLD STRONG FRONT
WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST OK LATE TONIGHT, IMPACTING THE AREA DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY.
WARE
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 158 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
A TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL US, WITH THE MID-
LEVEL SPEED MAX FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING,
BRINGING FALLING TEMPERATURES AND VERY STRONG WINDS BEHIND IT. THE
NBM HAS BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING GUSTS POTENTIALLY
OVER 60 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX, WITH
GUSTS OF 50-60 MPH INTO CENTRAL OK. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
925-850 MB WIND FIELD AND THE DEGREE OF MIXING FORECAST BEHIND THE
FRONT, SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THIS IN THE FORECAST. A HIGH
WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT SUNDAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA OUTSIDE
OF SOUTHEAST OK, BUT A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY FOR
THESE AREAS AS WELL.
THE STRONG WINDS WILL BRING A FIRE RISK AS WELL, THOUGH STRONG COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY TEMPER THIS THREAT SOMEWHAT.
REGARDLESS, WITH SUCH HIGH WINDS ANY FIRE THAT STARTS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF RAPID SPREAD GIVEN THE STATE OF THE FUELS (ERCS OF 80-
90TH PERCENTILE). AS OF NOW THE GREATEST OVERALL FIRE RISK WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX, WHERE NEAR-
CRITICAL TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT SUNDAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA ALONG AND WEST OF
I-35.
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN OK
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH, BUT
DRY ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION AT THE
SURFACE VERY LIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT,
WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES SETTLING IN BY MONDAY MORNING. LOWS
COULD FALL INTO THE TEENS ACROSS NORTHWEST OK, WITH TWENTIES
ELSEWHERE. LINGERING NORTH WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER,
WITH WIND CHILLS POTENTIALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS NORTHERN
OK MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE MONDAY (A
RARITY THIS WINTER), WITH MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTHERN OK AND
MID 50S NEAR THE RED RIVER.
WARE
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK FEATURES QUITE THE WEATHER
WHIPLASH AS WE SWING FROM A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE MONDAY MORNING TO
POTENTIALLY RECORD BREAKING HEAT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS A LARGE
UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
US THROUGH THE WEEK. NBM CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME EYE-POPPING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WITH 90TH
PERCENTILE VALUES (REASONABLE WORST CASE) APPROACHING 110 DEGREES
ACROSS SOUTHWEST OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX AND OVER 100 DEGREES
INTO CENTRAL OK. THE NBM MEAN ISN'T NEARLY THIS EXTREME, BUT WOULD
STILL BE NEAR ALL-TIME MARCH RECORDS, AS IT SHOWS SEVERAL DAYS OF
WIDESPREAD 90+ DEGREE TEMPERATURES AND NEARLY 100 DEGREES ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS PATTERN IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY TO
YIELD ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE NEXT 7-10
DAYS, WHICH WILL ONLY ACT TO WORSEN ONGOING DROUGHT AND MAINTAIN THE
FIRE RISK ACROSS THE AREA.
WARE
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
VFR SKIES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS PRIOR TO AN EXTREMELY STRONG COLD
FRONT. FOR TODAY, WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH GENERALLY AT
10-15 KNOTS. WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO BE NOTABLE TONIGHT WITH A LLJ AS
STRONG AS 60 KNOTS DEVELOPING. THE DIRECTION OF THAT SHEAR WILL
TEND TO VEER WITH TIME TOWARD DAYBREAK. AS OF NOW, THE ONLY TAF
WITH A MENTION OF FROPA PRIOR TO 12Z IS WWR, BUT THIS COULD BE TOO
CONSERVATIVE AND THE FRONT COULD BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF I-44
BY 12Z TOMORROW.
MEISTER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 80 57 65 24 / 0 0 10 0
HOBART OK 83 53 63 22 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 86 63 73 27 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 83 41 52 19 / 0 0 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 79 49 60 20 / 0 0 20 0
DURANT OK 79 61 77 29 / 0 0 10 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
OKZ004>030-033>040-044-045.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR OKZ004>006-009>011-014>019-021>025-027>029-033>041-
044>046-050.
TX...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
TXZ083>090.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...04
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