433
FXUS64 KOUN 150400
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1100 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1028 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
- WINDY SUNDAY WITH NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
- A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILL VALUES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
- DRY WEATHER PERSISTS WITH NEAR-RECORD HEAT POSSIBLE BY THE END
OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH A HIGHER PRESSURE
GRADIENT AS A SURFACE OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO DEEPENS AND MOVES
INTO WESTERN KANSAS. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST TO SOMEWHERE NEAR A MEDFORD TO HOLLIS
LINE AROUND SUNRISE.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
WINDS WILL BECOME VERY STRONG BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS IT
CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS AT 850 MB ARE
PROGGED TO BE UP TO 50 TO 55 KNOTS IN THE NORTHWEST POST-FRONTAL
FLOW SO THERE WILL BE OPPORTUNITY FOR MIXING DOWN SOME GUSTS OVER
50 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS. WITH
THIS, THE HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN CONVERTED TO A HIGH WIND
WARNING. WIND GUSTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS HIGH IN
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THIS AREA.
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RANGE FROM ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS AND EXPECTED LOW
HUMIDITY. FUELS WILL BE RECEPTIVE FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD, ESPECIALLY
IN THE WEST WHERE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL HAS BEEN LACKING RECENTLY.
PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA HAVE NOT AN INCH OF RAIN OVER THE
LAST 60 DAYS. THE LOWEST HUMIDITY WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON VALUES
BELOW 20 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED FROM WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SOUTH
THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF NORTH TEXAS. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND MOST OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FOR THE POTENTIAL OF RAPID WILDFIRE SPREAD.
BLOWING DUST IS ALSO INCLUDED IN THE WEATHER GRIDS WITH THE
STRONG, GUSTY WINDS AND DRY SOIL CONDITIONS.
ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE LOW, THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AFFECTING SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA ALONG THE
FRONT AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS. BUT THE
CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE HIGHEST TO THE EAST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECOUPLE AROUND SUNSET, ALTHOUGH WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY STRONG THROUGH THE EVENING. THE COLD ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON MONDAY
MORNING. MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BELOW AVERAGE, ALTHOUGH THIS COOL WEATHER WILL
BE SHORT LIVED.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK FEATURES QUITE THE WEATHER
WHIPLASH AS WE SWING FROM A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE MONDAY MORNING TO
POTENTIALLY RECORD BREAKING HEAT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS A LARGE
UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
US THROUGH THE WEEK. NBM CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME EYE-POPPING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WITH 90TH
PERCENTILE VALUES (REASONABLE WORST CASE) APPROACHING 110 DEGREES
ACROSS SOUTHWEST OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX AND OVER 100 DEGREES
INTO CENTRAL OK. THE NBM MEAN ISN'T NEARLY THIS EXTREME, BUT WOULD
STILL BE NEAR ALL-TIME MARCH RECORDS, AS IT SHOWS SEVERAL DAYS OF
WIDESPREAD 90+ DEGREE TEMPERATURES AND NEARLY 100 DEGREES ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS PATTERN IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY TO
YIELD ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE NEXT 7-10
DAYS, WHICH WILL ONLY ACT TO WORSEN ONGOING DROUGHT AND MAINTAIN THE
FIRE RISK ACROSS THE AREA.
WARE
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
ALL TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN IN A VFR CATEGORY AT LEAST THROUGH
08Z. STRATUS MAY INCREASE TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH A
POTENTIAL LOWER CEILING OVER TERMINAL KDUA AFTER 08Z THROUGH 12Z
DEGRADING IT TO AN IFR CATEGORY. SOME OF THIS STRATUS MAY
SCATTER OR BECOME BROKEN ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA OVER
TERMINALS KOKC, KOUN, KSWO, AND KPNC WHERE CONFIDENCE IS ONLY HIGH
ENOUGH FOR A TEMPO GROUP AT THOSE 4 TERMINALS. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
JET FLOW OF 35-40 KTS ORIENTATED SOUTH TO NORTH WILL MAINTAIN A
POTENTIAL FOR LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHEAR CONDITIONS UNTIL A COLD FRONT
ARRIVES AT THE TERMINAL. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 15-20 KTS SUSTAINED UNTIL THE COLD FRONT/WIND
SHIFT ARRIVES. SURFACE WINDS ARE PARTIALLY MIXED INTO THE LOWER-
LEVEL JET PRODUCING WIND GUSTS DOWN AT THE SURFACE AT 25 KTS.
A STRONG COLD FRONT COMING DOWN FROM KANSAS WILL BE PUSHING
ACROSS OUR TERMINALS PRODUCING A NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT 20-30
KTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS INCREASING 45-55 KTS. ALL OF OUR
TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR KDUA WILL BE IN A HIGH WIND WARNING EXTENDING
THROUGH 00Z. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT/WIND SHIFT AND STRONG WINDS
ACROSS MOST OF OUR TERMINALS WILL BE BETWEEN 12-15Z WITH THE FRONT
REACHING TERMINAL KDUA BY 17Z. AFTER 00Z EXPECTING OUR TERMINALS
TO STAY STRONGLY VERTICALLY MIXED AND SLOW TO DECOUPLE UNTIL NEAR
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BY 05Z NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
WILL HAVE DECREASED 10-15 KTS SUSTAINED BUT COULD STILL SEE 35-40
MPH GUSTS ACROSS SOME OF OUR TERMINALS. THE STRONG WINDS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE BLOWING DUST WHICH MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES DOWN TO
5 OR 6 MILES OR COULD GO EVEN LOWER IN SOME AREAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 56 64 24 48 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 52 61 22 52 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 62 70 27 53 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 42 52 19 51 / 0 10 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 48 60 21 44 / 0 20 0 0
DURANT OK 62 73 30 49 / 0 10 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ004>030-
033>040-044-045.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ004>006-
009>012-014>019-021>030-033>041-044>046-050.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ031-032-
041>043-046>048-050>052.
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ083>090.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...68
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