480
FXUS64 KOUN 150705
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
205 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 151 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
- VERY WINDY TODAY WITH WIND GUSTS OF 50-60+ MPH EXPECTED.
- NEAR-CRTICIAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TODAY, MAINLY DUE TO
STRONG WINDS
- A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILL VALUES IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
- RECORD HEAT POSSIBLE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND,
WITH WIDESPREAD 90+ DEGREE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
QUITE MILD CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING AS A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL JET IS KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED. SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA THAT IS
FORECAST TO RACE SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING AS A TROUGH AMPLIFIES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. VERY STRONG NORTH WINDS AND FALLING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY. SUSTAINED SPEEDS
OF 30-40 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH GUSTS OVER 60 MPH AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN OK INTO WESTERN NORTH TX. BLOWING DUST
IS ALSO LIKELY FOR THESE AREAS AS MUCH OF THE REGION UPSTREAM HAS
SEEN LITTLE RECENT RAINFALL AND VEGETATION REMAINS DORMANT. A
HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE AREA OUTSIDE
SOUTHEAST OK, WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR GUSTS OF 40
TO 50 MPH.
FIRE WEATHER WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN TODAY AS EVEN WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES SUCH INTENSE WINDS AND DRY FUELS WILL MAKE IT MORE
DIFFICULT TO DEAL WITH ANY FIRES THAT START. PERHAPS THE GREATEST
OVERALL FIRE RISK WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX
WHERE NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY A BIT
LOWER FOR THESE AREAS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF
THE AREA ALONG AND WEST OF I-35.
WINDS WILL ONLY GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS EVENING AS IT APPEARS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL TAKE A COUPLE HOURS TO FULLY DECOUPLE AFTER
SUNSET. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL MAKE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT
WITH LOWS DROPPING WELL INTO THE 20S FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH SOME
TEENS POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN/NORTHWESTERN OK. COMBINED WITH A
LINGERING NORTHERLY BREEZE, IT WILL FEEL 10-15 DEGREES COLDER IN
MOST SPOTS.
WARE
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 151 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING MONDAY
WITH NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S FOR HIGHS. WINDS WILL VEER BACK TO THE SOUTH BY TUESDAY,
HELPING BOOST HIGHS BACK ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE 60S AND 70S. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR A FIRE WEATHER RISK TUESDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR A
DRY RETURN FLOW SETUP CREATING ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER.
WARE
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE IN EARNEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO END
OF NEXT WEEK AS STRONG UPPER RIDGING (NEARLY 600 DM AT 500 MB)
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN/CENTRAL US. MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO
POINT TOWARDS THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD HEAT ACROSS THE AREA WITH
WIDESPREAD 90+ DEGREE TEMPS LIKELY AND 100 DEGREES NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX. REMARKABLY,
EVEN THE 50TH PERCENTILE NBM WOULD CHALLENGE THE ALL-TIME MARCH
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH 90TH
PERCENTILE VALUES WELL OVER 100 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
AND APPROACHING 110 DEGREES ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST. ENSEMBLE SPREAD
INCREASES BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS SOME MODELS WANT TO TRY TO
BRING A COLD FRONT INTO/NEAR AND HEAT RELIEF INTO THE AREA, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW IN THIS SCENARIO AT THIS TIME.
UNFORTUNATELY, WITH THE UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE REGION
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR ZERO FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
7 DAYS IF NOT LONGER.
WARE
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
ALL TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN IN A VFR CATEGORY AT LEAST THROUGH
08Z. STRATUS MAY INCREASE TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH A
POTENTIAL LOWER CEILING OVER TERMINAL KDUA AFTER 08Z THROUGH 12Z
DEGRADING IT TO AN IFR CATEGORY. SOME OF THIS STRATUS MAY
SCATTER OR BECOME BROKEN ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA OVER
TERMINALS KOKC, KOUN, KSWO, AND KPNC WHERE CONFIDENCE IS ONLY HIGH
ENOUGH FOR A TEMPO GROUP AT THOSE 4 TERMINALS. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
JET FLOW OF 35-40 KTS ORIENTATED SOUTH TO NORTH WILL MAINTAIN A
POTENTIAL FOR LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHEAR CONDITIONS UNTIL A COLD FRONT
ARRIVES AT THE TERMINAL. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 15-20 KTS SUSTAINED UNTIL THE COLD FRONT/WIND
SHIFT ARRIVES. SURFACE WINDS ARE PARTIALLY MIXED INTO THE LOWER-
LEVEL JET PRODUCING WIND GUSTS DOWN AT THE SURFACE AT 25 KTS.
A STRONG COLD FRONT COMING DOWN FROM KANSAS WILL BE PUSHING
ACROSS OUR TERMINALS PRODUCING A NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT 20-30
KTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS INCREASING 45-55 KTS. ALL OF OUR
TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR KDUA WILL BE IN A HIGH WIND WARNING EXTENDING
THROUGH 00Z. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT/WIND SHIFT AND STRONG WINDS
ACROSS MOST OF OUR TERMINALS WILL BE BETWEEN 12-15Z WITH THE FRONT
REACHING TERMINAL KDUA BY 17Z. AFTER 00Z EXPECTING OUR TERMINALS
TO STAY STRONGLY VERTICALLY MIXED AND SLOW TO DECOUPLE UNTIL NEAR
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BY 05Z NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
WILL HAVE DECREASED 10-15 KTS SUSTAINED BUT COULD STILL SEE 35-40
MPH GUSTS ACROSS SOME OF OUR TERMINALS. THE STRONG WINDS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE BLOWING DUST WHICH MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES DOWN TO
5 OR 6 MILES OR COULD GO EVEN LOWER IN SOME AREAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 67 24 48 28 / 10 0 0 0
HOBART OK 65 22 52 29 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 72 28 53 32 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 51 19 51 30 / 10 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 58 20 43 24 / 10 0 0 0
DURANT OK 77 30 49 29 / 10 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR OKZ004>030-033>040-044-045.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
OKZ004>006-009>012-014>019-021>030-033>041-044>046-050.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR OKZ031-032-041>043-046>048-050>052.
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...68
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