545
FXUS64 KOUN 160354
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1054 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1041 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
- VERY WINDY THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH WIND GUSTS OF 50-60+ MPH.
- NEAR-CRTICIAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING,
MAINLY DUE TO STRONG WINDS
- A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILL VALUES IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
- RECORD HEAT POSSIBLE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND,
WITH WIDESPREAD 90+ DEGREE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
A RATHER BUSY AFTERNOON WITH SEVERAL ONGOING HAZARDS, SUCH AS:
STRONG DAMAGING WINDS, WILDFIRES, AND BLOWING DUST. THE STRONGEST
COLD AIR ADVECTION IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS. THIS MAY SHIFT THE STRONGER WIND
GUSTS AWAY FORM NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, WIND GUSTS OVER 55 MPH WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE BEFORE
DIMINISHING INTO THE 35 TO 40 MPH RANGE EARLY THIS EVENING. THE
REDUCED WIND SPEEDS WILL HELP ELEVATE WILDFIRE BEHAVIOR AND LOW
VISIBILITY WITH BLOWING DUST.
A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S. THE WIND WILL REMAIN BREEZY, SO WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CHILLY ON MONDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTH OF THE AREA. A NORTHERLY WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST
AND SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURE WILL REBOUND
QUICKLY ON TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S (MOST AREAS). WITH DRY RETURN FLOW AND A BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WIND, ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE IN EARNEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO END
OF NEXT WEEK AS STRONG UPPER RIDGING (NEARLY 600 DM AT 500 MB)
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN/CENTRAL US. MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO
POINT TOWARDS THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD HEAT ACROSS THE AREA WITH
WIDESPREAD 90+ DEGREE TEMPS LIKELY AND 100 DEGREES NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX. REMARKABLY,
EVEN THE 50TH PERCENTILE NBM WOULD CHALLENGE THE ALL-TIME MARCH
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH 90TH
PERCENTILE VALUES WELL OVER 100 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
AND APPROACHING 110 DEGREES ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST. ENSEMBLE SPREAD
INCREASES BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS SOME MODELS WANT TO TRY TO
BRING A COLD FRONT INTO/NEAR AND HEAT RELIEF INTO THE AREA, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW IN THIS SCENARIO AT THIS TIME.
UNFORTUNATELY, WITH THE UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE REGION
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR ZERO FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
7 DAYS IF NOT LONGER.
WARE
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
ALL TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTY NORTH SURFACE WINDS WILL PERSIST
BETWEEN 30-40 KTS THROUGH 12Z DECREASING 20-30 KTS BETWEEN 12-18Z.
SUSTAINED WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TO DECREASE 15-20 KTS BY 07-08Z.
SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 18-23Z WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY
AROUND 15 GUSTING TO 20 MPH. BY 00Z WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH WITH
NORTH WINDS DECREASING TO 5 KTS. BY 05Z SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY
LIGHT BUT WILL HAVE VEERED SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 24 46 28 66 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 22 51 30 70 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 27 53 31 70 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 19 50 29 74 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 20 43 23 64 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 29 48 29 62 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...06
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...68
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