784
FXUS64 KOUN 160708
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
208 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 207 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
- WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE THIS MORNING WITH WIND CHILL VALUES IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
- RECORD HEAT POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND,
WITH WIDESPREAD 90+ DEGREE TEMPERATURES LIKELY.
- FIRE RISK CONTINUES, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY, WITH NO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
CHILLY TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE STORY THIS MORNING WITH BREEZY NORTH
WINDS PRODUCING WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH
SOME SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS NORTHERN OK. NORTHERLY FLOW STAYS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST. HIGHS WILL
TOP OUT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP BELOW FREEZING FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA, BUT LIGHTER WINDS WILL KEEP IT FROM FEELING QUITE
AS COLD.
WARE
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 152 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE TRANSITION DAYS AS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL US. DRY RETURN FLOW
COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
AND AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPS BELOW 20%. A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TUESDAY FOR MOST AREAS WEST OF I-35. HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S (EAST) TO MID 70S (WEST), WITH MOST
AREAS THEN ADDING ANOTHER 10 DEGREES TO HIGHS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WARE
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST BUILDS EVEN FURTHER, WITH 500
MB HEIGHTS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE RECORD VALUES ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN US BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. NBM CONTINUES TO SHOW
WIDESPREAD 90+ DEGREE TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS
850 MB TEMPS SOAR TO 20-25C. DAILY RECORD HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO BE
SET AND THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ONE OR MORE OF OUR CLIMATE
SITES TO SET ALL TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF
MARCH. GREATER UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON SUNDAY AS SOME ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SHOW A COLD FRONT ATTEMPTING TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN OK,
THOUGH FEWER MEMBERS ARE SHOWING THIS SCENARIO THAN THERE WERE
YESTERDAY. DISAGREEMENT THEN INCREASES FARTHER INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK ON WHETHER OR NOT THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN OR QUICKLY
REBUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN US. REGARDLESS, THIS PATTERN WILL
OFFER LITTLE TO NO OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL AS GULF MOISTURE
REMAINS CUTOFF AND OUR AREA SITS UNDER DRY WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.
WARE
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
ALL TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTY NORTH SURFACE WINDS WILL PERSIST
BETWEEN 30-40 KTS THROUGH 12Z DECREASING 20-30 KTS BETWEEN 12-18Z.
SUSTAINED WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TO DECREASE 15-20 KTS BY 07-08Z.
SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 18-23Z WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY
AROUND 15 GUSTING TO 20 MPH. BY 00Z WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH WITH
NORTH WINDS DECREASING TO 5 KTS. BY 05Z SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY
LIGHT BUT WILL HAVE VEERED SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 46 27 67 47 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 51 29 69 43 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 52 31 70 45 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 50 29 74 43 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 42 23 65 44 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 48 29 62 45 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR OKZ004>006-009>012-014>018-021>024-027-033>038-044.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...68
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