708
FXUS64 KOUN 162318
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
618 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 554 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
- ANOTHER FREEZE TUESDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER HARD FREEZE IN THE
NORTH AND IN SHELTERED AREAS.
- RECORD HEAT POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND,
WITH WIDESPREAD 90+ DEGREE TEMPERATURES LIKELY.
- FIRE RISK CONTINUES, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY, WITH NO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
GUSTY NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH
DECENT MIXING OF HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR FROM ABOVE THE SURFACE. THIS
WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY TONIGHT AS THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION
REDEVELOPS. THE SURFACE HIGH IS CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR TRUSCOTT
TX WITH THE RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
BECOME GENERALLY SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST,
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL STILL BE LIGHT IN MOST AREAS. LIGHT WINDS AND
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE CHILLY
AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH SUB-FREEZING OR NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS DEEPENING LOW AND THE DEPARTING RIDGE. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY ON TUESDAY. WITH THIS WARM
AND DRY DOWNSLOPE AIRMASS ALONG WITH THE GUSTY WINDS, FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME ELEVATED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH
NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. MINIMUM HUMIDITY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL FALL TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA. WILL MAINTAIN THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR TUESDAY WITH
THE ANTICIPATION THAT SOME, IF NOT ALL, OF IT WILL NEED TO BE
CONVERTED TO A RED FLAG WARNING IN THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE.
A SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
EARLY WEDNESDAY, BUT THE AIRMASS MOVING IN WILL HAVE BEEN WARMED
BY A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT SO WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY ON BOTH SIDES OF THIS BOUNDARY. BUT THIS BOUNDARY DOES
HELP TO RELAX THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG
ON WEDNESDAY. THE LIGHTER WINDS WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
SOMEWHAT IN CHECK ON WEDNESDAY, BUT LOW HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS
ACROSS THE AREA ARE STILL OF CONCERN.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST BUILDS EVEN FURTHER, WITH 500
MB HEIGHTS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE RECORD VALUES ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN US BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. NBM CONTINUES TO SHOW
WIDESPREAD 90+ DEGREE TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS
850 MB TEMPS SOAR TO 20-25C. DAILY RECORD HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO BE
SET AND THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ONE OR MORE OF OUR CLIMATE
SITES TO SET ALL TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF
MARCH. GREATER UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON SUNDAY AS SOME ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SHOW A COLD FRONT ATTEMPTING TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN OK,
THOUGH FEWER MEMBERS ARE SHOWING THIS SCENARIO THAN THERE WERE
YESTERDAY. DISAGREEMENT THEN INCREASES FARTHER INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK ON WHETHER OR NOT THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN OR QUICKLY
REBUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN US. REGARDLESS, THIS PATTERN WILL
OFFER LITTLE TO NO OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL AS GULF MOISTURE
REMAINS CUTOFF AND OUR AREA SITS UNDER DRY WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.
WARE
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 554 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
ALL OF OUR TERMINALS SHOULD STAY IN A VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD WITH ONLY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS.
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE GOING LIGHT & VARIABLE AFTER SUNDOWN. AS A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CIRCULATION ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS MOVES TO
THE EAST, WE'LL SEE A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND DIRECTION BETWEEN
03-06Z. BY 12Z SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH
AROUND 10KTS. A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE INCREASING BY 06Z OUT OF THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
CONDITIONS ACROSS 6 OF OUR TERMINALS (KSPS, KLAW, KOUN, KOKC,
KSWO, AND KPNC) WITHIN THE JETS MAXIMA UNTIL LATE MORNING MIXING.
BY 16Z SURFACE WINDS WILL HAVE VEERED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST INCREASING
15KTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 KTS. BY 21Z SUSTAINED
WINDS WILL BE 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 28 68 46 79 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 29 71 42 82 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 31 71 45 81 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 28 74 42 81 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 23 67 43 78 / 0 10 0 0
DURANT OK 29 63 45 75 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR OKZ004>006-009>012-014>018-021>024-027-033>038-044.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...68
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