575
FXUS64 KOUN 170618
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
118 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 116 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
- RECORD HEAT POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND,
WITH WIDESPREAD 90+ DEGREE TEMPERATURES LIKELY.
- FIRE RISK CONTINUES (ESPECIALLY TUESDAY) WITH NO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WILL BE FIRE WEATHER. AS
RECORD-SETTING RIDGING BEGINS TO ENTRENCH ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHWEST,
INTENSE 500 MB HEIGHT RISE (CLOSE TO 100 METERS IN 12 HOURS) WILL
OCCUR. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST, THOUGH, AND THE
ENSUING NORTHWEST FLOW WILL GENERATE WIDESPREAD SURFACE TROUGHING
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. WITH THAT OCCURRING TO THE NORTHWEST AND A
REMNANT 1028 MB HIGH REMAINING OVER THE GULF COAST FROM THE PREVIOUS
STORM SYSTEM, NEAR-SURFACE TRAJECTORIES WILL COME STRAIGHT OFF OF
THE TRANS-PECOS MOUNTAIN RANGES AND THE CHIHUAHUAN DESERT.
ALL OF THIS WILL SET UP A CLASSIC "DRY RETURN FLOW" FIRE WEATHER
ENVIRONMENT FOR US THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY JUMP
BACK UP FROM OUR BRIEF SOJOURN BELOW-NORMAL TO REACH HIGHS FROM THE
MID-60S (EAST) TO MID-70S (WEST). DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY 10-20
ACROSS THE AREA, AND WITHOUT TAPPING INTO ANY MOISTURE SOURCE IT IS
HARD TO ENVISION THEM RISING DURING DAYTIME MIXING. THE MITIGATING
FACTOR FOR FIRE WEATHER TODAY WILL BE WINDS. SHALLOW MIXING DEPTHS
AND WEAK 850-700 MB WINDS WILL COUNTERACT A REASONABLY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND KEEP SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE
WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE.
A BROAD AREA OF NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS THUS EXPECTED FROM
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. THIS MATCHES WELL WITH THE TTU WRF SHOWING RFTIS OF 4-5 IN
THE AREA. FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST, A WEAK WIND SHIFT WILL LIKELY
KEEP FIRE WEATHER IN CHECK A LITTLE, WHILE FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST,
TEMPERATURES WON'T CLIMB QUITE AS MUCH. IN THAT MIDDLE NEAR-CRITICAL
ZONE, A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED.
MEISTER
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
THE SHORT-TERM WILL BE NOTABLE FOR ONE OF THE MORE RAPID TRANSITIONS
FROM A BRIEF COOL PERIOD INTO A FULL-BLOWN HEAT WAVE YOU'LL EVER
SEE. TONIGHT WE'LL SEE TEMPERATURES DROP TO AROUND AVERAGE WITH
LIGHT WINDS AS THAT WEAK FRONT/WIND SHIFT STALLS OUT IN THE AREA.
TOMORROW, THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD FROM THE
MOJAVE DESERT TO THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WHILE CONTINUING TO
AMPLIFY FURTHER BEYOND THE BOUNDS OF CLIMATOLOGY. THE SURFACE
RESPONSE WILL BE ANOTHER 10-15 DEGREES OF WARMING TEMPERATURES
COMPARED TO TODAY. FIRE WEATHER WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO THE LIGHT
WINDS.
BY THURSDAY THE SYNOPTIC HEAT WAVE WILL BE WELL INTO ITS PEAK ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST. WE'LL REMAIN ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE HIGHEST 500
MB HEIGHTS WITH PURE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. IF THIS SOUNDS LIKE THE
KIND OF PATTERN THAT BRINGS IN HOT TEMPERATURES, WEAK COLD FRONTS,
AND STORMS IN LATE JULY, YOU'D BE RIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY FOR US, THE
RADIATIVE BALANCE IS GOING TO TILT JUST A LITTLE MORE TOWARD
"SENSIBLE HEATING" THAN "LATENT HEATING" WITH THIS OCCURRING IN
MARCH INSTEAD OF JULY, SO IT WILL JUST BE A HOT AND SUNNY DAY EVEN
WITH THE WEAK FRONT.
MEISTER
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
HEAT CONTINUES TO BE THE NAME OF THE GAME GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE LIKELY TO BE AMONG THE HOTTEST MARCH DAYS IN
RECORDED HISTORY ON THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR
SATURDAY, WHERE EACH OF OKC/LAWTON/WICHITA FALLS IS FORECAST TO COME
WITHIN 2 DEGREES OF THE MARCH MONTHLY RECORD HIGH (AND WITH
OPERATIONAL NBM STILL SITTING BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 50TH PERCENTILE,
THERE'S A GOOD CHANCE OUR FORECAST BUMPS A DEGREE OR TWO BETWEEN NOW
AND THEN). REGARDLESS, THIS WILL LIKELY BE AN IMPACTFUL EARLY-SEASON
HEAT WAVE ESPECIALLY AFTER THE BRIEF COOLDOWN.
THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. THIS INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR THE FIRST TIME INTO
WHAT IS OTHERWISE A SLAM-DUNK FORECAST BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. MOST
MODELS SHOW A FRONT ACCELERATING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING
THE DAYTIME BEFORE EITHER STALLING IN OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA,
THEN MAKING A QUICK RETURN TRIP NORTHWARD ON MONDAY. JUST HOW THAT
EVOLUTION OCCURS WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THE TEMPERATURE AND FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST. HOWEVER, ONE THING WE KNOW: THE LONG-TERM
CONTINUES TO HOLD LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR RAIN.
MEISTER
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
ALL OF OUR TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN IN A VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD WITH ONLY INCREASING MID TO HIGH
CLOUDINESS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING IN DIRECTION OUT OF
THE SOUTH BY 12Z THE VEERING SOUTHWEST BY 16-17Z SUSTAINED AT
10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS AT 20-30 KTS THROUGH 00Z. AFTER 01Z EXPECTING
SURFACE WINDS TO BACK OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH
DIMINISHING GUSTS. THERE IS A LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASING TONIGHT OUT
OF THE SOUTH- SOUTHWEST UNTIL LATE MORNING MIXING AROUND 16-17Z.
LOW- LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT 6 OF OUR TERMINALS UNDER
THE JETS MAXIMA (35KTS AT 020 FT) THROUGH 16Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 66 46 79 51 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 71 42 82 48 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 70 44 80 50 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 75 42 80 49 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 66 43 78 48 / 10 0 0 0
DURANT OK 62 45 75 51 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR OKZ008-011>031-033>038-044.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...68
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