425
FXUS64 KOUN 172318
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
618 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 614 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
- RECORD HEAT POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND,
WITH WIDESPREAD 90+ DEGREE TEMPERATURES LIKELY.
- FIRE RISK CONTINUES, ESPECIALLY TODAY AND SATURDAY.
- NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
FOCUS IS ON FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TODAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA, AND RH HAD DROPPED BELOW 20
PERCENT ACROSS MANY AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 LATE THIS MORNING.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED WITH AREAS
OF NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS. SOME LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS ARE
NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS THIS PAST SUNDAY, BUT WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR FIRE SPREAD WITH THE LOW HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPANDED THE RED FLAG WARNING EARLIER THIS MORNING BOTH
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND IN SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AS HIGHER
WINDS WERE FORECAST IN THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH INCREASING RH AS TEMPERATURES
COOL. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WIND TO HELP KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES UP
AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE 15-20 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE COOLER THOUGH
WITH MODIFIED DOWNSLOPE AIR NORTH OF THE FRONT. BUT THE PROXIMITY
OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXED AND WINDS
WILL BE LIGHTER KEEPING ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MORE IN CHECK.
THERE IS A LITTLE MORE PUSH OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY AND NORTH
WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT AND CREATE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AGAIN WHEN COMBINED WITH LOW AFTERNOON RH. BUT AGAIN,
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE COOLER WITH THE FRONT. IN FACT, HIGHS ON
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE MID 80S TO MID 90S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
HEAT CONTINUES TO BE THE NAME OF THE GAME GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE LIKELY TO BE AMONG THE HOTTEST MARCH DAYS IN
RECORDED HISTORY ON THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR
SATURDAY, WHERE EACH OF OKC/LAWTON/WICHITA FALLS IS FORECAST TO COME
WITHIN 2 DEGREES OF THE MARCH MONTHLY RECORD HIGH (AND WITH
OPERATIONAL NBM STILL SITTING BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 50TH PERCENTILE,
THERE'S A GOOD CHANCE OUR FORECAST BUMPS A DEGREE OR TWO BETWEEN NOW
AND THEN). REGARDLESS, THIS WILL LIKELY BE AN IMPACTFUL EARLY-SEASON
HEAT WAVE ESPECIALLY AFTER THE BRIEF COOLDOWN.
THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. THIS INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR THE FIRST TIME INTO
WHAT IS OTHERWISE A SLAM-DUNK FORECAST BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. MOST
MODELS SHOW A FRONT ACCELERATING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING
THE DAYTIME BEFORE EITHER STALLING IN OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA,
THEN MAKING A QUICK RETURN TRIP NORTHWARD ON MONDAY. JUST HOW THAT
EVOLUTION OCCURS WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THE TEMPERATURE AND FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST. HOWEVER, ONE THING WE KNOW: THE LONG-TERM
CONTINUES TO HOLD LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR RAIN.
MEISTER
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING, THOUGH SOME BREEZINESS OF 10 TO 15 MPH MAY CONTINUE EVEN
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED FROM
AROUND MIDNIGHT TOWARD MORNING ACROSS OUR EASTERN TAF SITES AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. WIND WILL BE LIGHT TOMORROW, SHIFTING TO
NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT BRIEFLY.
DAY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 46 80 52 88 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 42 82 49 91 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 44 81 51 93 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 42 81 49 87 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 43 78 48 85 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 45 75 51 87 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004>042-
044>046-050.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...14
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