071
FXUS64 KOUN 181724
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1222 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
- RECORD HEAT EXPECTED BY THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND,
WITH WIDESPREAD 90+ DEGREE TEMPERATURES LIKELY.
- FIRE RISK CONTINUES, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.
- NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
THERMOMETERS ACROSS OUR AREA WILL KEEP ON RISING TODAY AS A
SMOTHERING RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THE TREND THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WILL BE FOR A VERY WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP IN FAR
WESTERN OKLAHOMA. AN EQUALLY WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TO THE EAST OF THIS
LOW WILL BE GROUND ZERO FOR THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WITH WEAKENING
WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL SIT IN THE MID-70S TO MID-80S DURING THE
PEAK OF DAYTIME HEATING. DESPITE RHS ONCE AGAIN BEING BELOW 20
PERCENT, LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER LOW.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
REMARKABLY SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH A MASSIVE
RIDGE TO THE WEST, A WEAK SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL TROUGH BISECTING THE
AREA, AND VERY HOT TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THAT THIS
TIME THE WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MODEST
DOWNSLOPING WESTERLIES. MODEST THOUGH THEY MAY BE, THIS WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES UP ANOTHER 10 DEGREES SO THAT WE START PUSHING INTO
DAILY RECORD TERRITORY.
NO FORCING MECHANISM ARRIVES BETWEEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO CHANGE
THE PATTERN, SO WE'LL JUST EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME TO OCCUR. OUR
FORECAST IS YET A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER AS SENSIBLE HEATING
IMPACTS COMPOUND OVER MULTIPLE DAYS. HEAT RISK WILL BE ELEVATED,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. NO CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE
SHORT TERM.
MEISTER
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN FINALLY BECOMES UNSTUCK ON SATURDAY AS THE
RIDGE WOBBLES EASTWARD AND DEAMPLIFIES. UNFORTUNATELY FOR US, THAT
ACTUALLY MEANS HEIGHT RISES, AND SATURDAY IS INCREASINGLY LOOKING
LIKE THE PEAK OF THE HEAT WAVE FOR MOST PEOPLE. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
HIGHS IN THE 90S AND IT WOULD BE A MILD SURPRISE IF WE DO NOT SEE
SOME TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS IN THE
AFTERNOON. HEAT RISK WILL BE ELEVATED ACROSS A WIDER AREA AND
MODERATE IN PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. HEAT HEADLINES MAY WELL BE
NEEDED GIVEN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL ANOMALY THIS IS.
A RAPIDLY-ADVANCING COLD FRONT INTRODUCES A HECK OF A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY INTO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON SUNDAY. GRAND ENSEMBLE
DATA SHOWS A PLAUSIBLE SPREAD IN HIGH TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT 30
DEGREES NEAR I-40; MID-60S IF THE FRONT IS FASTER, MID-90S IF IT'S
SLOWER. WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT THE FRONT WILL REDUCE TEMPERATURES
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS IT PASSES, AND THAT AHEAD OF IT (LIKELY IN
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS) THE PREFRONTAL TORCH COULD BRING TRIPLE DIGITS
INTO PLAY AGAIN. FIRE WEATHER WILL ALSO COME BACK INTO PLAY IN THE
MUCH WINDIER ENVIRONMENT BEHIND THE FRONT.
IT LOOKS LIKE THAT "COOLDOWN" (TO AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES) WILL HOLD FOR A DAY, MAYBE TWO, BEFORE A SECOND PRONG
OF THE HEAT WAVE POTENTIALLY DEVELOPS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK BLEAK.
MEISTER
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
SURFACE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH
IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WITH A BREEZY SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WIND
PREVAILING ELSEWHERE. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHERN, WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THURSDAY MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGH CLOUDS SLOWLY DECREASING THIS
EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 50 90 55 92 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 48 95 50 94 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 49 94 53 95 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 49 91 49 93 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 47 86 50 89 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 50 87 54 89 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...06
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page