084
FXUS64 KOUN 181845
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
145 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 145 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
- RECORD HEAT EXPECTED BY THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND,
WITH WIDESPREAD 90+ DEGREE TEMPERATURES LIKELY.
- FIRE RISK CONTINUES, ESPECIALLY NEAR AND BEHIND A FRONT ON
SUNDAY.
- NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
OUR EARLY SPRING HEAT WAVE CONTINUES TO BUILD TODAY ALONG WITH
CONCERN FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AN
ANOMALOUS/RECORD-SETTING UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE PRIMARY SURFACE FEATURE OF NOTE IS A WEAK
PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM FAR WESTERN INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE WE WILL LIKELY FALL SEVERAL DEGREES SHORT OF DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS TODAY, TEMPERATURES WILL STILL RUN +10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-MARCH (UPPER-70S TO UPPER-80S). WARMEST
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT, AND NEAR THE AXIS OF THE WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH.
SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO BE NOTABLY LIGHTER COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY/TUESDAY, THOUGH OCCASIONAL SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS TO 25 MPH
WILL CONTINUE IN AREAS EAST OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING.
DESPITE LIGHTER SURFACE FLOW, WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL YIELD VERY
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY. LOCAL POCKETS OF SINGLE-DIGIT PERCENTAGES MAY
BE OBSERVED ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN-NORTH TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY DRIER/MORE VOLATILE
FUELS, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN AREAS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF I-40, AND A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING.
UNGAR
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
THE END OF THE WEEK WILL FEEL MORE AKIN TO EARLY TO MID-SUMMER THAN
THE MIDDLE OF MARCH, WITH MULTIPLE DAYS OF POTENTIAL RECORD-SETTING
HEAT. AS THE CENTER OF THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLIDE
SLOWLY EASTWARD, ADVECTED AIRMASSES WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE
NOTABLE (I.E., WARMER) WITH TIME.
WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S ARE EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY, WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF RECORDS ACROSS SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN-NORTH TEXAS. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT A FEW
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE TEXAS ROLLING PLAINS FLIRT WITH TRIPLE DIGITS
INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON.
CONTINUED VERY LOW (<15%) RELATIVE HUMIDITY INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WILL AGAIN PROMOTE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A
PASSING WEAK FRONT WILL INTRODUCE A WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT
THAT WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED RELATIVE TO ANY ESTABLISHED
WILDLAND FIRE.
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE MORE OF THE SAME, WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY A FEW
DEGREES WARMER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. THERE REMAINS MEDIUM-HIGH (>60%) CONFIDENCE IN DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WHILE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE PROBLEMATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR, VERY LOW HUMIDITY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST DURING THE DAYTIME.
UNGAR
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN FINALLY BECOMES UNSTUCK ON SATURDAY AS THE
RIDGE WOBBLES EASTWARD AND DEAMPLIFIES. UNFORTUNATELY FOR US, THAT
ACTUALLY MEANS HEIGHT RISES, AND SATURDAY IS INCREASINGLY LOOKING
LIKE THE PEAK OF THE HEAT WAVE FOR MOST PEOPLE. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
HIGHS IN THE 90S AND IT WOULD BE A MILD SURPRISE IF WE DO NOT SEE
SOME TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS IN THE
AFTERNOON. HEAT RISK WILL BE ELEVATED ACROSS A WIDER AREA AND
MODERATE IN PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. HEAT HEADLINES MAY WELL BE
NEEDED GIVEN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL ANOMALY THIS IS.
A RAPIDLY-ADVANCING COLD FRONT INTRODUCES A HECK OF A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY INTO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON SUNDAY. GRAND ENSEMBLE
DATA SHOWS A PLAUSIBLE SPREAD IN HIGH TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT 30
DEGREES NEAR I-40; MID-60S IF THE FRONT IS FASTER, MID-90S IF IT'S
SLOWER. WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT THE FRONT WILL REDUCE TEMPERATURES
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS IT PASSES, AND THAT AHEAD OF IT (LIKELY IN
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS) THE PREFRONTAL TORCH COULD BRING TRIPLE DIGITS
INTO PLAY AGAIN. FIRE WEATHER WILL ALSO COME BACK INTO PLAY IN THE
MUCH WINDIER ENVIRONMENT BEHIND THE FRONT.
IT LOOKS LIKE THAT "COOLDOWN" (TO AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES) WILL HOLD FOR A DAY, MAYBE TWO, BEFORE A SECOND PRONG
OF THE HEAT WAVE POTENTIALLY DEVELOPS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK BLEAK.
MEISTER
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
SURFACE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH
IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WITH A BREEZY SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WIND
PREVAILING ELSEWHERE. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHERN, WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THURSDAY MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGH CLOUDS SLOWLY DECREASING THIS
EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 50 91 55 94 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 48 94 53 95 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 49 94 55 95 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 49 90 49 94 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 47 85 51 90 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 50 86 55 90 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...06
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