865
FXUS64 KOUN 200435
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1135 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1134 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
- RECORD HEAT LIKELY INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH WIDESPREAD 90+ DEGREE
TEMPERATURES LIKELY.
- FIRE RISK CONTINUES, ESPECIALLY NEAR AND BEHIND A FRONT ON
SUNDAY.
- NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE YOU WONDERING WHERE SPRING
HAS GONE, WITH AN EARLY SEASON HEAT WAVE BEGINNING IN EARNEST. OUR
AREA REMAINS POSITIONED JUST DOWNSTREAM OF AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
UPPER RIDGE, WITH RECORD-SETTING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS OBSERVED ON
MORNING BALLOON RELEASES ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. CLOSER TO
THE SURFACE, A RATHER NEBULOUS PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS, WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM FAR
SOUTHWESTERN INTO NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE ALLOWING FOR EFFICIENT MIXING INTO AN
ANOMALOUSLY WARM LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS, WITH WIDESPREAD UPPER-80S TO
MID-90S EXPECTED OVER THE COMING HOURS. WARMEST CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST NEAR AND JUST AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PRESSURE TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN RED RIVER VALLEY.
WHILE OVERALL WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT (<15 MPH) THIS
AFTERNOON, PRECLUDING A MORE SIGNIFICANT FIRE RISK, THE CONDITION OF
FIRE FUELS ARE ONLY WORSENING SUCH THAT HOT TEMPERATURES/VERY LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL STILL PROMOTE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT (RFD) IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WEST
OF US-81.
UNGAR
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
HEAT (LIKELY RECORD-SETTING IN SPOTS) AND ESCALATING FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN LOOK TO REMAIN THE MAIN WEATHER STORY AS WE HEAD TOWARDS
THE WEEKEND.
DESPITE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS INTO THE
AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY LOOK TO PEAK A FEW DEGREES WARMER,
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-40/EAST OF I-35. WHILE AN ILL-DEFINED SURFACE
PATTERN WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS (THOUGH
WITH CHANGEABLE DIRECTION ACROSS A SURFACE TROUGH), LOCALIZED
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN ONE-
THIRD OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE RUN OF HOT WEATHER LOOKS TO CRESCENDO ON SATURDAY, AS THE ONCE
STAGNANT RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND MOVE EASTWARD. MID TO
UPPER-90S HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY MATCH OR BREAK DAILY
RECORDS FOR MANY SITES ACROSS THE REGION, AND ALL-TIME MARCH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY BE THREATENED ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS. PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN RED RIVER VALLEY MAY ALSO
FLIRT WITH TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH A
MEDIUM (40-60%) CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE. WHILE USUALLY RESERVED FOR
OUR PEAK SUMMER MONTHS, HEAT HEADLINES CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT
LATER UPDATES FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN-NORTH TEXAS AND FAR
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS NATURE (TIMING &
INTENSITY) OF FORECAST TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND.
AFTER DAYS OF LOW INTENSITY FIRE RISK, DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY HOT AND
VERY DRY CONDITIONS, SATURDAY APPEARS TO FEATURE MORE NOTABLE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERN. THIS IS PRIMARILY THE RESULT OF A MORE PRONOUNCED
AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTHERLY WIND BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AS A
LEE LOW TAKES SHAPE TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. COMBINED WITH
CONTINUED <20% RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND VERY HOT TEMPERATURES,
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING MORE LIKELY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. THIS AREA IS NOW COVERED
WITH FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM ON SATURDAY.
UNGAR
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARD A STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE
OCCURRING DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS EXTREMELY
HIGH IN THE EFFECT THAT THIS FROPA WILL HAVE ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES, THOUGH IT IS LIKELY THAT THE PREFRONTAL TORCH WILL
BE AMONG THE HOTTEST READINGS WE SEE ALL SPRING. THIS FRONT IS
ALSO OF PARTICULAR CONCERN BECAUSE OF THE FIRE CONCERNS BEHIND IT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO DROP IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT AND WILL REMAIN MUCH WARMER- THAN-AVERAGE THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THOUGH RH WILL RECOVER SOME IN THE POSTFRONTAL
AIRMASS, THIS WILL BE COUNTERACTED BY WINDS THAT WILL GUST 30-40
MPH FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PRIMARILY WEST OF I-35 SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
UNFORTUNATELY, RELIEF FROM THE HEAT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
BE TRANSIENT. WE WILL DROP TO ONLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON
MONDAY. FOLLOWING THIS DOWNRIGHT ARCTIC BLAST, A RAPID RETURN TO DRY
RETURN FLOW ON TUESDAY WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES AND RENEWED
WILDFIRE CONCERNS. THEN IT LOOKS LIKE THE MID-TO-LATE PART OF NEXT
WEEK WILL BE ANOTHER BRIEF BUT POTENTIALLY INTENSE HEAT WAVE BEFORE
ANOTHER, STRONGER COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY SCOURS THROUGH. IF YOU'RE
LOOKING FOR RAIN, DON'T HOLD YOUR BREATH - GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
LOOK BLEAK.
MEISTER
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUE. NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA MAY SEE A
SLIGHT BREEZE FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
DAY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 89 55 93 57 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 92 51 96 53 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 93 54 95 57 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 90 48 95 51 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 86 51 91 52 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 85 56 89 60 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR OKZ004>006-009>011-014>016-021-022.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...14
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