586
FXUS64 KOUN 020357
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1057 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1039 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
- SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. POTENTIAL HAZARDS:
-- LARGE HAIL (> 2")
-- DAMAGING WINDS (60-75 MPH)
-- TORNADOES
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.
- STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
AFTER A LONG, HOT FEBRUARY AND MARCH, THE ATMOSPHERE'S APRIL FOOL'S
DAY PRANK FOR US THIS YEAR IS TO JUMP US STRAIGHT INTO ACTIVE SEVERE
WEATHER ON THE FIRST OF THE MONTH. SATELLITE SHOWS A BAND OF CIRRUS
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES IN ADVANCE OF A COMPACT TROUGH. ROBUST
HEIGHT FALLS WILL OVERSPREAD THE DRYLINE (ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR
SEILING TO SAN ANGELO) THIS AFTERNOON. SUBSEQUENT
COOLING/DESTABILIZING ALOFT WILL PROVE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT, AND PERHAPS WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT/RAPID UPSCALE
GROWTH. A SECONDARY AREA TO WATCH FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
ALONG A SURGING WARM FRONT, WHICH BY MID-AFTERNOON WILL EXTEND EAST-
NORTHEAST FROM THAT DRYLINE INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS AREA
IS MORE REMOVED FROM FORCING AND THUS THE CHANCES FOR STORMS PRIOR
TO SUNSET ARE LOWER.
SHEAR PROFILES ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL FAVOR SPLITTING SUPERCELLS
INITIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS NEAR 20 AND WEAK 0-1
KM SHEAR WILL TEMPER THE INITIAL TORNADO THREAT, BUT VERY LARGE HAIL
IS POSSIBLE WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 7.5/8 C/KM RANGE. IF
ANY STORMS DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE WARM FRONT, LOW-
LEVEL SHEAR WOULD BE GREATER THERE, LEADING TO A CONDITIONALLY
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLULAR TORNADOES.
STORM DEVELOPMENT/AMALGAMATION WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE DRYLINE AS
FORCING CONTINUES LATE THIS EVENING. WE ANTICIPATE THAT THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING SQUALL LINE.
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARD GREATER 100-MB MEAN MIXING RATIOS AND
MORE CLASSIC GREAT PLAINS LLJ-INDUCED HODOGRAPHS BETWEEN 0Z AND 04Z
TONIGHT. THUS, CONCERN IS HEIGHTENED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LINE-
EMBEDDED TORNADOES, ONE OR TWO OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG (EF2+). THE
RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AS THE LLJ RAMPS UP AND
DOWNDRAFTS HAVE INCREASED MOMENTUM TO MECHANICALLY MIX TO THE
SURFACE.
THE SQUALL LINE WILL EXIT OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN
KANSAS.
MEISTER
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EASTWARD DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY, THE
DRYLINE WILL ELONGATE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND MIX EASTWARD.
THE RESIDUAL HIGH PLAINS AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE EXTREMELY DRY,
SO EVEN WITH RATHER MARGINAL SURFACE WINDS, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
WILL EMERGE IN FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA/WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THIS ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER IS YET TO BE DETERMINED DUE
TO THE POTENTIAL DAMPING EFFECT (PUN NOT INTENDED) OF RAINFALL ON
THE FUELSCAPE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE-NORMAL, WHICH IS
BASICALLY PAR FOR THE COURSE FOR THIS YEAR.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WILL SWEEP IN WITH A MUCH STRONGER COLD
FRONT ON FRIDAY. THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW/UPPER-LEVEL FORCING IS
EXPECTED TO BE CLOSER TO IOWA, LEAVING US ON THE SOUTHWESTERN FRINGE
OF AN ELONGATED "BANANA LOW". THOSE KIND OF EARLY-SPRING BANANA LOW
ENVIRONMENTS ARE RIPE (PUN NOT INTENDED) FOR ANAFRONTAL CONVECTION
AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHWARD, AND ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE
WILL SEE THAT HERE. THAT WILL POTENTIALLY LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT OR
AT LEAST FOCUS IT MORE INTO A DAMAGING WIND THREAT ALONG THE FRONT,
THOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT DOES LOOK RATHER UNSTABLE AND SHEAR PROFILES
ARE ROBUST. REGARDLESS, FRIDAY BRINGS HOPE OF ANOTHER WIDESPREAD
ROUND OF WETTING RAIN AS WE MOVE INTO THE PEAK OF THE GREEN-UP
SEASON.
MEISTER
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT, WITH DECREASING CLOUDS. LOW TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE AND RANGE FROM THE UPPER
30'S TO MID 40'S. NO RAIN CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
TUESDAY AND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE
70'S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
WILL KEEP TEMPOS FOR -TSRA THROUGH 10Z AT ALL OF OUR TERMINALS
EXCEPT KCSM & KWWR. WILL KEEP A POTENTIAL FOR +TSRA AT TERMINAL
KDUA IN SOUTHEAST OK DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
JET INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH COULD PRODUCE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
CONDITIONS OF 40-50KTS ACROSS OUR TERMINALS ALONG AND EAST OF
I-35 AT LEAST THROUGH 15Z. SOME OF OUR TERMINALS COULD REDUCE TO
AN MVFR CATEGORY THROUGH 15Z DUE TO LOW CEILINGS. AFTER 15Z ALL
TERMINALS SHOULD STAY IN A VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
FORECAST WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AROUND
15-20 KTS GUSTING 20-30 KTS THROUGH 01Z. AFTER 01Z, SURFACE WINDS
WILL BACK MORE SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 62 83 64 81 / 100 0 0 50
HOBART OK 59 86 63 85 / 80 0 0 50
WICHITA FALLS TX 63 88 65 84 / 90 0 10 60
GAGE OK 52 84 58 81 / 60 0 0 10
PONCA CITY OK 62 81 62 80 / 100 10 0 60
DURANT OK 64 83 66 81 / 90 50 20 40
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...68
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