041
FXUS64 KOUN 021643
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1143 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1244 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
- COLD FRONT BRINGS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
REST OF TONIGHT, RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD WITH SEVERE STORM ACTIVITY HAVING COME TO AN END. RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO EXIT OUR CWA NEAR DAWN OR JUST AFTER DAWN. SUNNY
SKIES, BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS (I-44 & EAST) ARE EXPECTED AS THE
MAIN SURFACE LOW EXITS AND A SLOW- AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE PASSES
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
80'S TO LOW 90'S. OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA, WESTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE MORNING AND WILL DIMINISH BY MID-DAY, BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH BY MID- AFTERNOON. WITH THE RAINFALL
RECEIVED THIS PAST EVENING OVER MUCH OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONFINED TO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS A LEE-SIDE TROUGH
DEVELOPS AS A STRONG UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
INCREASED FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING HIGH/MID CLOUDS AND COULD
SEE LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.
THOMPSON
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
A COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY MID-
MORNING OR MID-DAY AND MOVE SLOWLY DURING THE DAY. MODELS SUGGEST BY
MID-AFTERNOON, THE BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM BLACKWELL-WATONGA-ELK
CITY. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. MLCAPE OF 2500 TO 3000 J/KG
IS PROG'D OVER THE WARM SECTOR WITH MEAGER LOW/MID-LEVEL SHEAR. THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS, AND CANNOT RULE OUT A TORNADO. BY THE WAY, HREF
PWAT VALUES ARE PROG'D AS 1.5-1.6 INCHES ALONG/EAST OF THE I-44
CORRIDOR WHICH IS ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL DAILY MAX OF 1.31 INCHES.
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND A SLOW MOVING FRONT, EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
IS ALSO A CONCERN AND COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING FOR THE DURATION OF THE EVENT (LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY).
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
PRIMARILY SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA BEFORE EXITING
LATE AFTERNOON. STORM TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS OF AT LEAST 1 INCHES ARE
ANTICIPATED FROM VERNON TO EL RENO TO CUSHING, WITH SCATTERED
LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA RECEIVING 2 TO
2.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL.
SUNDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL QUITE CHILLY WITH UPPER
30'S OVER NORTH/WESTERN OKLAHOMA TO MID-40'S ELSEWHERE.
THOMPSON
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
MID-LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP TO OUR WEST AND A SURFACE HIGH WILL
PROVIDE FOR BEAUTIFUL WEATHER CONDITIONS ON EASTER SUNDAY WITH LIGHT
WINDS, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, AND TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER
60'S TO MID 70'S.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 70'S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
THE REEMERGENCE OF VFR CATEGORY CONTINUES AT ALL TERMINALS
LATE THIS MORNING. A PREVIOUS SURFACE TROUGH HAS SHIFTED WIND
DIRECTION TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA, WITH
RETURN TOWARDS MORE PREDOMINATE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION EXPECTED NEAR
AND AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT, A COMBINATION OF INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND
ARRIVING STRATUS (AMIDST STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT) WILL OFFER
ADDITIONAL CONCERN/LOWERED CATEGORY AT MOST TERMINALS ACROSS
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS BY DAYBREAK.
SAFE TRAVELS!
UNGAR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 83 66 80 49 / 0 0 70 80
HOBART OK 86 63 84 47 / 0 0 60 70
WICHITA FALLS TX 88 66 83 52 / 0 0 70 90
GAGE OK 83 59 80 41 / 0 0 10 20
PONCA CITY OK 79 62 79 44 / 0 0 70 60
DURANT OK 85 67 82 54 / 30 10 40 90
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...09
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