676
FXUS64 KOUN 030810
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
310 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 250 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
- COLD FRONT BRINGS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.
- DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER, SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHWARD IN TANDEM WITH AN
APPROACHING WAVE.
THE FIRST ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AS SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES BY EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON
WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE SUBTROPICAL
JET STREAM (SJT). THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
NORTHWEST OF I-44/WEST OF I-35.
THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ~2500 TO 3000
J/KG OF MLCAPE (INSTABILITY) AND ~35 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR, WHICH SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE INTO CLUSTERS AND LINE SEGMENTS
AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD, SO WIND MAY BECOME THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH
TIME.
INITIALLY, LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR APPEARS SOMEWHAT WEAK (~10 TO 15
KNOTS AT 0 TO 1 KM), WHICH SHOULD TEMPER THE TORNADO RISK.
HOWEVER, THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN (~30 TO 35
KNOTS) TOWARD EARLY EVENING AS THE FIRST ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
MOVES INTO EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, WHICH WILL RESULT IN
AN ATTENDANT TORNADO RISK IF ANY MESOVORTICES CAN DEVELOP WITHIN
ANY CLUSTERS/LINES. THE STORM MODE/STRUCTURE WILL HAVE AN IMPACT
ON THIS AS MESOVORTICES ARE MORE LIKELY WITH ANY BOWING
SEGMENTS/REAR-INFLOW JETS.
MAHALE
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
THE SECOND ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND MID-EVENING
AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES IN TANDEM WITH
A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET (LLJ). THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-40. THESE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY HAVE A TENDENCY TO BECOME ANAFRONTAL/ELEVATED AS THEY BECOME
UNDERCUT BY THE COLD FRONT.
FLOODING WILL LIKELY BECOME THE PRIMARY HAZARD BY THE SECOND
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS. FROM BOTH ROUNDS OF STORMS, THE HIGH
RESOLUTION ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (HREF) HAS AN ENSEMBLE MEAN OF
1" NEAR THE I-44 CORRIDOR WITH 1.5 TO 2.5" ACROSS SOUTHEAST/SOUTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THESE VALUES REPRESENT WHAT MOST LOCATIONS ARE
LIKELY TO RECEIVE. THE ENSEMBLE MAX HAS 1.5 TO 3" NEAR THE I-44
CORRIDOR WITH 3 TO 6" ACROSS SOUTHEAST/SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
THESE VALUES REPRESENT THE WORSE CASE SCENARIO AND THE POTENTIAL
CEILING FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT
RECEIVE THESE AMOUNTS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO DECREASE MARKEDLY
WITH NORTHWEST EXTENT WITH LIMITED TO NO RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHWARD. A COOLER
AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL ADVECT SOUTHWARD IN THE FRONT'S WAKE FOR
SATURDAY, WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S DEG F IN THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS MAY
RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT, THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. LIGHT WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND A DRIER AIR MASS
WILL RESULT IN A COLD NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S DEG F. SOME PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY SUNDAY MORNING.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH,
WHICH WILL RESULT IN WARMER WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN COMPARED TO
SATURDAY NIGHT.
MAHALE
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
SEASONABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY BY TUESDAY,
WHICH WILL RESULT IN LEE CYCLOGENESIS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. IN
RESPONSE, A STRENGTHENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS.
MOISTURE ADVECTION APPEARS SOMEWHAT LIMITED, SO A DRY RETURN FLOW
(DRF) PATTERN FOR FIRE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO
RECEIVE LIMITED TO NO RAINFALL WITH TODAY'S SYSTEM, SO THE FUELS
WILL LIKELY BE SUSCEPTIBLE WILDFIRE SPREAD.
THE BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH THE CONTINUED RISK FOR SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS; HOWEVER, INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD LIMIT
THE RISK BY THURSDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE LATE
THURSDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS BOTH DETERMINISTIC MODELS
AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
MAHALE
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. LLWS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
STARTING TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND ADVANCING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 81 50 64 42 / 70 90 20 0
HOBART OK 83 48 69 39 / 60 80 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 83 52 68 42 / 70 100 30 0
GAGE OK 77 41 68 37 / 10 30 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 80 45 64 37 / 70 60 0 0
DURANT OK 83 54 67 44 / 40 100 70 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...13
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