431
FXUS64 KOUN 032343
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
643 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 626 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
- COLD FRONT BRINGS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.
- DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER, SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 142 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
AFTER A PLEASANT DAY OF WEATHER ON THURSDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG-
TO-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING POTENTIAL ARRIVES
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT.
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY CAPTURES A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MEANDERING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS, WHILE A RATHER ACTIVE BRANCH OF
THE SUBTROPICAL JET BEGINS TO IMPINGE ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE
SURFACE, A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SINK SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM ~CHEYENNE TO
CHEROKEE.
EXPECTATION REMAINS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE FRONT IN THE 2-5 PM TIMEFRAME, AS
SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE DURING THE EVENING INTO NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY AS A WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC PATTERN INCREASES
NEAR THE FRONT AFTER SUNSET.
THE COMBINATION OF STRONG (>2500 J/KG MLCAPE) INSTABILITY AND ~40
KTS OF DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL PROMOTE ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS. A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND RISK WILL LIKELY
ACCOMPANY THE INITIAL PHASE (I.E., SUPERCELL MODE) OF THE
CONVECTIVE EVENT, WITH THE MAIN RISK TRANSITIONING TOWARDS
OCCASIONAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS UPSCALE GROWTH OCCURS THROUGHOUT
THE EVENING. WHILE A DEEP MOIST PROFILE MAY TEMPER THE WIND RISK
SOME, LOCAL CORRIDORS OF MORE FOCUSED RISK ARE POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED
WITH REAR-INFLOW JET/SURGES OF MORE ORGANIZED LINEAR CONVECTIVE
SEGMENTS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
WHILE NOT ZERO, THE RISK FOR TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIMITED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, PRIMARILY OWING TO WEAK LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND POTENTIAL FOR UNDERCUTTING EFFECTS FROM
STORM-SCALE OUTFLOWS AND EVENTUALLY THE FRONT. HOWEVER, AS A LOW-
LEVEL JET (AND ATTENDANT LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR) INCREASES AFTER
SUNSET NEAR AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR, WILL CLOSELY MONITOR
FOR POTENTIAL OF A TORNADO OR TWO. THIS WOULD BE ESPECIALLY TRUE
SHOULD AN ORGANIZED STORM OR TWO DEVELOP WITHIN A BROAD ZONE OF
NEAR-SURFACE CONVERGENCE DURING THE MID-EVENING, AS A FEW NEAR-
TERM GUIDANCE MEMBERS HAVE SHOWN THIS MORNING.
PERHAPS THE GREATEST RISK (AT LEAST FROM A COVERAGE PERSPECTIVE)
LOOKS TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG/EAST OF I-44 AND ALONG/SOUTH OF
I-40 LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A COMBINATION OF >95TH
PERCENTILE (FROM A SEASONAL PERSPECTIVE) PRECIPTABLE WATER, SLOW
STORM MOTIONS AND POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE OR REPEATED ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS DRIVES THIS CONCERN. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
INITIATED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA FROM 4 PM FRIDAY
TO 9 AM SATURDAY MORNING.
UNGAR
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 142 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
SATURDAY WILL BE DREARY/RAINY EARLY, ESPECIALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF
THE RED RIVER. WE CURRENTLY EXPECT ALL AREAS TO BE PRECIPITATION
FREE BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH POST-FRONTAL CLOUDINESS CLEARING
FROM NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. DAYTIME HIGHS (LOW
TO UPPER-60S) WILL BE THE COOLEST OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
ESPECIALLY WHERE CLOUDS LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON (I.E., CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA).
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO MODERATE ON SUNDAY, AS GREATER INFLUENCE FROM AN
EXPANDING WESTERN US UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BE FELT ACROSS THE
REGION. PEAK DAYTIME READINGS LOOK TO RUN FROM THE LOW TO MID-70S
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A LIGHT NORTH TO EAST
WIND. VERY SPLENDID WEATHER FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TO CLOSE OUT THE
WEEKEND!
UNGAR
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
SEASONABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY BY TUESDAY,
WHICH WILL RESULT IN LEE CYCLOGENESIS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. IN
RESPONSE, A STRENGTHENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS.
MOISTURE ADVECTION APPEARS SOMEWHAT LIMITED, SO A DRY RETURN FLOW
(DRF) PATTERN FOR FIRE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO
RECEIVE LIMITED TO NO RAINFALL WITH TODAY'S SYSTEM, SO THE FUELS
WILL LIKELY BE SUSCEPTIBLE WILDFIRE SPREAD.
THE BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH THE CONTINUED RISK FOR SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS; HOWEVER, INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD LIMIT
THE RISK BY THURSDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE LATE
THURSDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS BOTH DETERMINISTIC MODELS
AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
MAHALE
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
A FINAL ROUND OF CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF OUR TERMINALS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT. WILL HAVE TEMPOS FOR +TSRA AND POTENTIAL
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
IN RAIN UP TO THROUGH 08Z. ONLY TERMINAL KWWR IN NORTHWEST OK WILL
STAY CLEAR FROM ANY STORM ACTIVITY. WILL ALSO KEEP -SHRA IN TEMPO
GROUPS FOR FOUR HOURS FOLLOWING THE STORM ACTIVITY WITH MUCH OF
THIS ENDING BY 12Z ALTHOUGH LONGER UP TO 18Z AT KDUA. THE COLD
FRONT IS CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN OK AND
WILL CONTINUE PUSHING THROUGH OUR AREA PRODUCING A NORTHERLY WIND
SHIFT. OUR TERMINALS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SEE SURFACE
WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH BETWEEN 02-06Z WITH THE WIND SHIFT REACHING
TERMINAL KDUA BY 09Z. A STRONG POST-FRONTAL NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
JET MAY PRODUCE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR (MAINLY SPEED SHEAR) OVER
SOME OF OUR TERMINALS UNTIL 16Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 50 63 41 70 / 90 10 0 0
HOBART OK 49 69 39 72 / 80 10 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 53 66 43 71 / 90 50 0 0
GAGE OK 41 65 36 75 / 10 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 45 62 37 70 / 60 0 0 0
DURANT OK 53 63 44 70 / 100 90 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR OKZ023>032-035-037>048-
050>052.
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR TXZ086-089-090.
NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...68
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