115
FXUS64 KOUN 051054
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
554 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 551 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
- BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS, PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA, MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
- A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BRING A RETURN OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
A ~1027 MB SURFACE HIGH IN THE WAKE OF THE LAST NIGHT'S COLD
FRONT HAS BROUGHT A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE IN THE 30S AND
40S DEG F. SOME PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
WITH DEW POINTS NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING.
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY, A PLEASANT
DAY IS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS, ABUNDANT SUNSHINE, AND HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S DEG F.
MAHALE
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
SEASONABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH LEE CYCLOGENESIS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. IN RESPONSE, A
STRENGTHENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS--ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
INITIALLY, MOISTURE ADVECTION APPEARS SOMEWHAT LIMITED, SO
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. THIS AREA RECEIVED NO RAINFALL LAST WEEK, SO THE
VEGETATION (FUELS) REMAIN SUSCEPTIBLE WILDFIRE SPREAD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S DEG F AS THE
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST.
MAHALE
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE LOW-
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. EXPANDS TO THE
EAST--PLACING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S DEG F.
INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD OFFSET THE HIGHER
TEMPERATURES, WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FROM
BECOMING TOO LOW. THEREFORE, FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ONLY ELEVATED.
AN ACTIVE SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY LATE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS BOTH DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THE MEAN
OF THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE THAT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH
OR CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
THIS PATTERN WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR APPRECIABLE MOISTURE
ADVECTION/INCREASED INSTABILITY IN TANDEM WITH SYNOPIC-SCALE
ASCENT/INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EJECT
INTO THE PLAINS. WHILE THE EXACT DETAILS ARE YET TO BE DETERMINED,
THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND/OR SEVERE
WEATHER.
MAHALE
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH CIRRUS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THIS TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL VARIABLE TODAY BUT
OVERALL GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARDS THE E AND SE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 68 43 72 43 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 70 41 72 41 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 69 43 72 44 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 73 42 75 41 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 69 41 74 41 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 69 44 71 44 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...25
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