803
FXUS64 KOUN 060335
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1035 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1031 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
- BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS, PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA, MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
- A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BRING A RETURN OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
LIGHT WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES ARE MAKING FOR QUITE THE NICE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL
ACROSS THE REGION. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO OUR EAST
TONIGHT, BRINGING A RETURN OF LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT, WITH MOST AREAS DROPPING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.
WARE
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW HIGHS
TO RETURN TO THE 70S ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN OK, WHICH COMBINE WITH
DRIER AIR WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS FOR AREAS THAT
HAVE NOT RECEIVED APPRECIABLE RAINFALL THIS PAST WEEK (MAINLY
NORTH/WEST OF A LINE FROM ROGER MILLS TO ALFALFA COUNTIES).
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY OVER THE AREA THOUGH
INCREASED CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER AND TEMPER THE FIRE DANGER A BIT
AS WELL.
WARE
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE LOW-
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. EXPANDS TO THE
EAST--PLACING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S DEG F.
INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD OFFSET THE HIGHER
TEMPERATURES, WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FROM
BECOMING TOO LOW. THEREFORE, FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ONLY ELEVATED.
AN ACTIVE SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY LATE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS BOTH DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THE MEAN
OF THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE THAT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH
OR CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
THIS PATTERN WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR APPRECIABLE MOISTURE
ADVECTION/INCREASED INSTABILITY IN TANDEM WITH SYNOPIC-SCALE
ASCENT/INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EJECT
INTO THE PLAINS. WHILE THE EXACT DETAILS ARE YET TO BE DETERMINED,
THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND/OR SEVERE
WEATHER.
MAHALE
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE WIND WILL BE GUSTY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA BY 15-17Z MONDAY. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 6Z TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 44 72 43 70 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 41 73 42 71 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 44 72 44 72 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 42 75 42 72 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 41 73 41 72 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 44 71 45 70 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...06
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