608
FXUS64 KOUN 061040
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
540 AM CDT MON APR 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 539 AM CDT MON APR 6 2026
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF
THIS WEEK.
- BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TODAY.
- A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BRING A RETURN OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT MON APR 6 2026
DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR EARLY APRIL WILL CONTINUE TODAY
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE TODAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY TODAY WITH INCREASING LEE
CYCLOGENESIS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. AS A RESULT, ON AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S DEG F.
THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. SOUTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THESE WINDS WILL COMBINE
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 18 TO 25% TO RESULT IN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. GIVEN THIS AREA RECEIVED LITTLE
NO RAINFALL, VEGETATION REMAIN SUSCEPTIBLE TO WILDFIRE SPREAD WITH
ERC-G VALUES BETWEEN THE 70TH AND 90TH PERCENTILE. THEREFORE, THE
TOTAL FIRE ENVIRONMENT (FUELS + WEATHER) IS FAVORABLE FOR INITIAL
ATTACK FIRES AND A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (RFD) WAS ISSUED FOR
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
MAHALE
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT MON APR 6 2026
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE SYNOPIC-SCALE ASCENT LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A LOW (~15 TO 20%)
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THIS WAVE QUICKLY PASSES BY. ANY RAINFALL
WILL BE LIGHT. FOR MOST LOCATIONS, THE PRIMARY IMPACT WILL BE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES.
THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY TUESDAY SHOULD RESULT
IN TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY AND TEMPER THE
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S DEG F. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
AS SKIES CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST.
MAHALE
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT MON APR 6 2026
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS AS SOUTHERLY WINDS ADVECT MOISTURE
NORTHWARD. THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD MITIGATE ANY
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME, A
COUPLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES MAY SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE COLD FRONT (OR THE EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT) MAY
APPROACH NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH THE
REMNANTS OF THIS CONVECTION MOVING INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
THIS WILL BE THE START OF AN ACTIVE SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN THAT
IS FORECAST THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT LIKELY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHWEST FLOW
IS FAVORABLE FOR SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT AND INCREASED VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IN TANDEM WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION AND INCREASED
INSTABILITY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW LIFT
INTO THE PLAINS. AS A RESULT, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING. THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL
PERSIST UNTIL THE LARGE-SCALE CLOSED-LOW/TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE PLAINS.
MAHALE
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 539 AM CDT MON APR 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME CIRRUS THIS TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARDS THE SE AND S. WIND SPEEDS
WILL INCREASE IN WESTERN OK THIS AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 72 44 70 49 / 0 0 0 10
HOBART OK 73 43 70 47 / 0 0 0 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 72 44 71 52 / 0 0 0 10
GAGE OK 75 43 70 45 / 0 0 10 20
PONCA CITY OK 72 41 71 47 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 71 45 71 51 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...25
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