515
FXUS64 KOUN 070338
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1038 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1036 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF
THIS WEEK.
- BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BRING A RETURN OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026
IT IS THE OFFICIAL POSITION OF THIS METEOROLOGIST THAT TODAY'S
WEATHER QUALIFIES AS "BEAUTIFUL". HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S,
LOW HUMIDITY, ABUNDANT SUNSHINE, AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE: IF YOU HAVE
OUTDOOR PLANS THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING, CONSIDER YOURSELF LUCKY.
THE ONLY ANTICIPATED WEATHER IMPACT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF OKLAHOMA. WINDS WILL BE A
LITTLE STRONGER THERE (15-20 MPH SUSTAINED) AND RECENT RAINFALL HAS
MISSED THE AREA.
PURE SPRINGTIME CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES
DROP INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 40S, WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN THE
WASHITA, CANADIAN, AND CIMARRON VALLEYS.
MEISTER
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026
MORE OF THE SAME IN THE SHORT TERM AS SURFACE TROUGHING LEADS TO
RELATIVELY MODEST RETURN FLOW TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRETTY
SIMILAR, MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE PRETTY SIMILAR, AND WINDS WILL
MAYBE BE JUST A TOUCH STRONGER, SO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER WILL
PERSIST IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY,
AND THE EASTERLY PUSH OF THE PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE WINDS A
LITTLE CLOSER TO DUE SOUTHERLY. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP A
COUPLE OF DEGREES INTO THE MID-70S, THIS WILL ALSO BRING IN AT LEAST
PARTIAL GULF AIR. SO WHILE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER COULD CONTINUE IN A
WIND-DRIVEN ENVIRONMENT IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA, RHS WILL REMAIN NEAR
OR ABOVE 30 PERCENT, TEMPERING THAT CONCERN.
MEISTER
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT MON APR 6 2026
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS AS SOUTHERLY WINDS ADVECT MOISTURE
NORTHWARD. THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD MITIGATE ANY
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME, A
COUPLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES MAY SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE COLD FRONT (OR THE EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT) MAY
APPROACH NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH THE
REMNANTS OF THIS CONVECTION MOVING INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
THIS WILL BE THE START OF AN ACTIVE SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN THAT
IS FORECAST THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT LIKELY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHWEST FLOW
IS FAVORABLE FOR SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT AND INCREASED VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IN TANDEM WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION AND INCREASED
INSTABILITY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW LIFT
INTO THE PLAINS. AS A RESULT, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING. THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL
PERSIST UNTIL THE LARGE-SCALE CLOSED-LOW/TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE PLAINS.
MAHALE
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026
A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL BECOME GUSTY BY
LATE TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 44 70 47 73 / 0 0 0 10
HOBART OK 42 71 47 74 / 0 0 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 45 72 51 76 / 0 0 10 10
GAGE OK 43 71 45 76 / 0 0 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 42 72 47 73 / 0 0 0 10
DURANT OK 45 72 51 75 / 0 0 0 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...06
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