556
FXUS64 KOUN 071122
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
622 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 620 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE WEEK.
- BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BRING A RETURN OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
IT WILL BE ANOTHER COOL START TO THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW/MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA BY TUESDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER NICE SPRING DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THERE MIGHT BE JUST A BIT MORE OF A BREEZE
TUESDAY COMPARED TO MONDAY, ESPECIALLY IN NW OK WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LEADING TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 15 TO
25 MPH. THESE BREEZY WINDS WILL LEAD TO MAINLY A WIND DRIVEN (RH IN
THE 25-35% RANGE) ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN IN NW OK WHICH DID
NOT RECEIVE ANY RAIN LAST WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
THE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW/MID 70S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE AGAIN IN NW OK WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
MAINLY DUE TO WIND (15-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS) AND THE LACK OF
RAIN. MODELS SHOW GULF MOISTURE BEGINNING TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE REGION THE MIDDLE PART OF THIS WEEK AS WELL WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN TO MITIGATE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LATER THIS WEEK.
ON WEDNESDAY, MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO A
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO KS. MODELS SHOW SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING
NEAR THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA IN KS. HOWEVER, A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD DEVELOP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH CHANCES OF THIS ARE LOW (15-
20%).
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN INTO NORTHERN OK.
MODELS SHOW STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR A DRYLINE IN THE OK/TX
PANHANDLES. THIS ACTIVITY COULD THEN MOVE WEST INTO AND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT. SOME STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH INSTABILITY OF 1000-1500 J/KG
FORECASTED.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND AS AN ACTIVE PATTERN DEVELOPS AND CONTINUES INTO AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW SW FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH GULF MOISTURE CONTINUING
TO ADVECT NORTHWARD AT THE SURFACE. SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE SW
FLOW AND THE MOIST AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION
WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND.
PWATS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THE
INCREASING PWATS AND POTENTIALLY MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN, LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING COULD ALSO BECOME AN INCREASING CONCERN LATE
THIS WEEK INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE WITH BROKEN TO OCCASIONALLY OVERCAST CONDITIONS.
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY AND BECOME
GUSTY LATER THIS MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET
WITH THE LOSS OF VERTICAL MIXING/DAYTIME HEATING.
MAHALE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 71 47 75 55 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 71 45 76 53 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 72 47 77 55 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 72 44 77 52 / 0 0 0 10
PONCA CITY OK 72 46 75 53 / 0 0 0 10
DURANT OK 73 50 76 55 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...10
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