144
FXUS64 KOUN 080352
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1052 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1040 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE WEEK.
- BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
- A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BRING A RETURN OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
A SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS HELPING TO DEVELOP LEE TROUGHING THIS AFTERNOON
WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN, CENTRAL AND
INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 25 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA, COUPLED WITH THE LACK OF RECENT RAINFALL AND
CONTINUED VOLATILE FUELS WILL GIVE WAY TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. WITH INCREASED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND WEAK FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA, THERE IS A VERY LOW (<10%)
CHANCE FOR A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MOST OF THE REFLECTIVITY ECHOES THAT DEVELOP TODAY WILL
LIKELY REPRESENT VIRGA SHOWERS AND NOT REACH THE GROUND.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES THAN TODAY. A CLOSED UPPER LOW SWINGING ACROSS THE
CANADIAN AND NORTH DAKOTA BORDER WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
PLAINS. AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS. HOWEVER, WITH THE
UPPER LOW QUICKLY EJECTING NORTHEAST INTO CANADA BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING, THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD
AND THUS KEEP THE FRONT FROM PROGRESSING FARTHER SOUTH INTO
OKLAHOMA. WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY BRING SOME DECAYING
SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING.
AFTERNOON ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WITH WARM AND BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS COUPLED WITH VERY DRY FUELS. ANY DECAYING STORMS
LATE WEDNESDAY COULD PRODUCE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING, WHICH WILL
POSE A RISK FOR FIRE STARTS.
THURSDAY WILL FEATURE RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WARMER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS
GIVING WAY TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE AND STATIONARY FRONT IN KANSAS. WITH A
LACK OF FORCING WITH THE WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT, STORMS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. HOWEVER, A STRONG STORM WITH HAIL AND
WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. DECAYING SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSING FRONT IN KANSAS THAT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
RAIN AND STORM CHANCES FRIDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND AS AN ACTIVE PATTERN DEVELOPS AND CONTINUES INTO AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW SW FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH GULF MOISTURE CONTINUING
TO ADVECT NORTHWARD AT THE SURFACE. SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE SW
FLOW AND THE MOIST AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION
WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND.
PWATS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THE
INCREASING PWATS AND POTENTIALLY MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN, LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING COULD ALSO BECOME AN INCREASING CONCERN LATE
THIS WEEK INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
OTHER THAN SOME GUSTS IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT, EXPECT
RATHER LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH A SOME HIGH CLOUDS.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS OVER
30KTS ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS
WILL AGAIN DIMINISH AROUND 00Z TOMORROW EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 47 75 54 81 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 46 77 52 84 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 49 79 54 83 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 44 78 52 83 / 0 0 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 46 76 52 82 / 0 0 10 10
DURANT OK 50 77 54 80 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...30
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