273
FXUS64 KOUN 211720
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1220 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1216 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
- SCATTERED RAIN AND VERY LOW (NON-SEVERE) STORM POTENTIAL
CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS FROM TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- MULTI-HAZARD RISK POTENTIAL ON THURSDAY; SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE
EAST OF A DRYLINE, FIRE WEATHER CONCERN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND;
MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR STRONG-TO-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TODAY, THOUGH OVERALL IMPACT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. EARLY MORNING
SATELLITE CAPTURES AN UPPER IMPULSE GLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS. WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL HELP TO
FOSTER INCREASING COVERAGE OF SCATTERED PRECIPITATION CORES
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY NEAR AND SOUTH OF
THE RED RIVER. THE MAIN RISKS WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES, WITH NIL CHANCE FOR STRONG-TO-SEVERE
STORM ACTIVITY.
BY AND LARGE, NEW RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
(~0.25" OR LESS) TODAY, THOUGH LOCALIZED POCKETS NEARING 0.5" WILL
BE POSSIBLE WHERE REPEATED "HEAVIER" CORES MOVE OVERHEAD.
OTHERWISE, COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS, WITH LOW CLOUDS (AND
PERHAPS INTERMITTENT DRIZZLE) LINGERING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. MORE
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS (MID TO UPPER-70S) WILL OCCUR ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE CLOUD DECK FROM NEAR THE 100TH MERIDIAN INTO FAR
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
UNGAR
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
THE SLUGGISH UPPER IMPULSE ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO
FOSTER LIMITED (20-40%) COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WHILE CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY THIN INTO THE
AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY, THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT DAYTIME HIGHS MAY
AGAIN RUN ON THE COOL SIDE. WE HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY (INTO THE LOW TO MID-70S) ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OKLAHOMA, AND SOME INDIVIDUAL CAM MEMBERS HINT THAT AN EVEN COOLER
DAY IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS.
A SHARPENING DRYLINE BENEATH SUBTLE FORCING FROM AN APPROACHING
UPPER WAVE MAY FOSTER WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
COMBINED PANHANDLES ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. IF THIS OCCURS, THERE IS
VERY LOW (20%) POTENTIAL FOR A WEAKENING THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO
MEANDER ACROSS THE 100TH MERIDIAN, POSING SOME RISK FOR STRONG
WINDS. HOWEVER, THE FAVORED FORECAST AT PRESENT HIGHLIGHTS A
STORM-FREE EVENING AND NIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
A BROAD BELT OF ENHANCED WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, COMPRISED OF AT
LEAST ONE PROMINENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS ON THURSDAY. AS A DRYLINE MIXES AND SHARPENS ACROSS
WESTERN EXTENTS OF THE AREA, POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OF MULTI-HAZARD RISK.
HOT TEMPERATURES, LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND
THE DRYLINE WILL PROMOTE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE AREA NORTH/WEST OF A
WAYNOKA-CHEYENNE LINE, WHERE RECENT RECONNAISSANCE FROM FORESTRY
PARTNERS INDICATE FIRE FUELS REMAIN DORMANT (I.E., MOST PROBLEMATIC
FOR FIRE STARTS).
TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE, SOME RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
EXIST. HOWEVER, AS IS COMMON WITH DRYLINES BEING OVERSPREAD BY WEAK
SYNOPTIC FORCING AMIDST PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL WARMING,
PREDICTABILITY ON OVERALL STORM COVERAGE IS LIMITED. STILL, HAVE
OPTED TO CARRY VERY LOW (~20%) STORM MENTIONS IN VICINITY OF THE
DRYLINE THURSDAY EVENING. BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS LOOK TO ARRIVE
AFTER SUNSET ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA, WHEN
SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN PLAY.
UNGAR
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
A GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO PERSIST ON FRIDAY AND
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN CONTINUED
(MODEST) WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS,
TIMING/STRENGTH/TRACK OF INDIVIDUAL STORM SYSTEMS REMAINS GENERALLY
UNCERTAIN.
ON FRIDAY, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO MEANDER EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. RENEWED CONCERN
FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED, MAINLY EAST
OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR, INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
PROGGED INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WOULD FAVOR POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG-TO-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS AREA.
PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE WEEKEND, IN
PARTICULAR ON SUNDAY, WHEN GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO HONE IN ON A
MORE IMPACTFUL UPPER WAVE PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE SEVERE
WEATHER CERTAINLY REMAINS POSSIBLE (ESP. SUNDAY), EXACT DETAILS ON
AREAS/TIMING/HAZARDS WILL BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON EVOLUTION OF BOTH
SURFACE AND UPPER AIR FEATURES FROM PRIOR DAYS. MAKE SURE TO CHECK
BACK AS A MORE UNIFIED PICTURE COMES INTO FOCUS!
UNGAR
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BE NOTED ON RADAR ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE RAINFALL IS LIGHT, REDUCED
VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE EAST OF I-35, ESPECIALLY AROUND DUA. THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CURRENT STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY ERODE
SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT REMAIN NORTH OF I-40, THEN WILL
SURGE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
BEST CHANCE FOR FOG AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL BE ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF I-44.
MEISTER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 57 73 64 82 / 10 10 0 20
HOBART OK 57 80 64 91 / 10 0 0 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 58 80 65 88 / 10 0 0 10
GAGE OK 55 83 62 89 / 10 10 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 57 73 63 82 / 0 10 10 30
DURANT OK 56 74 64 79 / 40 30 0 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...04
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