153
FXUS64 KOUN 220436
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1136 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1130 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
- SCATTERED RAIN AND VERY LOW (NON-SEVERE) STORM POTENTIAL
CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- MULTI-HAZARD RISK POTENTIAL ON THURSDAY; SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE EAST
OF A DRYLINE, FIRE WEATHER CONCERN ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
OKLAHOMA.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND;
MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR STRONG-TO-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE KEPT THINGS FAIRLY COOL TODAY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OK WHERE TEMPERATURE HAVE BEEN FAIRLY STEADY IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. FARTHER NORTH, GREATER INSOLATION HAS
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO PUSH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THE PARENT MID-UPPER WAVE MOVES SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT,
SHOWER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH. HOWEVER, WITH CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION LOW CLOUDS AND/OR PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST.
WARE
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
LOW CLOUDS, PATCHY FOG, AND/OR OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY. FURTHER
WEST, CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO MIX OUT BY LATE MORNING AND EXPECT
HIGHS HERE TO REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S, WITH LOW 70S TO THE
EAST OF I-35 WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE THICKEST.
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS THE BASE OF A LARGE
TROUGH ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN WEST MERGES WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET
ACROSS AZ/NM. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG CAPPING EAST OF THE
DRYLINE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL POSITION ITSELF SSW-NNE
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TX AND WESTERN OK. A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS REMAINS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE AND
SURVIVE CAPPING TO THE EAST, AS THE ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT A
RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND TORNADOES. AS OF NOW
CHANCES FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE ARE LOW (15-20%).
GREATER CHANCES WILL EXIST ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OK CLOSER TO A
COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH OUR AREA. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE FRONT AND THERE IS NOW SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL REACH OUR AREA AT ALL THURSDAY NIGHT. IF
NOT, STORM CHANCES WOULD LIKELY REMAIN MAINLY TO OUR NORTH
THURSDAY NIGHT SO THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO CONTINUE TO WATCH AS
WE GET CLOSER.
TO THE WEST OF THE DRYLINE, VERY DRY TO EXTREMELY DRY AIR WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 5-10% IS FORECAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
COMBINED WITH GUSTY WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS, NEAR-CRTICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE AREA
NORTH/WEST OF A WAYNOKA-CHEYENNE LINE, WHERE RECENT RECONNAISSANCE
FROM FORESTRY PARTNERS INDICATE FIRE FUELS REMAIN DORMANT (I.E.,
MOST PROBLEMATIC FOR FIRE STARTS).
WARE
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
A GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO PERSIST ON FRIDAY AND
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN CONTINUED
(MODEST) WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS,
TIMING/STRENGTH/TRACK OF INDIVIDUAL STORM SYSTEMS REMAINS GENERALLY
UNCERTAIN.
ON FRIDAY, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO MEANDER EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. RENEWED CONCERN
FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED, MAINLY EAST
OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR, INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
PROGGED INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WOULD FAVOR POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG-TO-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS AREA.
PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE WEEKEND, IN
PARTICULAR ON SUNDAY, WHEN GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO HONE IN ON A
MORE IMPACTFUL UPPER WAVE PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE SEVERE
WEATHER CERTAINLY REMAINS POSSIBLE (ESP. SUNDAY), EXACT DETAILS ON
AREAS/TIMING/HAZARDS WILL BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON EVOLUTION OF BOTH
SURFACE AND UPPER AIR FEATURES FROM PRIOR DAYS. MAKE SURE TO CHECK
BACK AS A MORE UNIFIED PICTURE COMES INTO FOCUS!
UNGAR
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING AT MOST SITES WITH THE PRESENCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND
DEVELOPING PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FOG DOWN TO HALF A MILE MAY BE POSSIBLE, BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW FOR EXACT LOCATIONS OF THIS DEVELOPMENT.
LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER AT MOST SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
SOME SITES RETURNING TO VFR, WHILE OTHERS WILL REMAIN IN MVFR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 57 74 64 83 / 0 0 0 20
HOBART OK 57 81 64 93 / 10 20 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 58 80 66 89 / 10 10 0 10
GAGE OK 55 83 61 90 / 0 10 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 57 74 63 83 / 0 0 10 20
DURANT OK 56 75 64 80 / 30 20 10 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...23
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