455
FXUS64 KOUN 221831
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
131 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 128 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
- MULTI-HAZARD RISK POTENTIAL ON THURSDAY; SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE EAST
OF A DRYLINE, FIRE WEATHER CONCERN ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
OKLAHOMA.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND;
MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR STRONG-TO-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
THE FOG AND DRIZZLE THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO STICK
AROUND INTO TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA WHERE CLOUDS WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING
BACK IN TONIGHT. WITH THE CLOUD COVER, "COOLER" (COMPARED TO THE
REST OF THE WEEK) TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S EXCEPT IN THOSE AREAS THAT GET MORE
SUN IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH
DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE 60S. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
STORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE DRYLINE WEST OF THE FA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. IF THESE STORMS DEVELOP, THEY MAY MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST
INTO FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS EVENING AS THEY CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN/DISSIPATE. IF A STORM DOES MOVE INTO THE FA, GUSTY WINDS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S DUE TO
THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND CLOUD COVER. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY IN PARTS OF WESTERN OK.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
THURSDAY: A MULTI-HAZARD RISK IS STILL EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH
FIRE WEATHER AND SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS.
MODELS SHOW A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE POTENTIALLY MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS CLOSER TO THE CENTRAL
U.S. MEANWHILE, AT THE SURFACE, A LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN SW
KS/NW OK/ OK PANHANDLE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A SHARPENING
DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OK AND NORTH
TX.
THURSDAY FIRE WEATHER: DRY AIR (MIN RH 5-10%) IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA BEHIND THE DRYLINE. THESE LOW RHS
ALONG WITH BREEZY (15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH) SOUTHWEST WINDS,
HOT TEMPERATURES, AND CONTINUED DRY FUELS ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD TO
ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS WHERE
VEGETATION IS THE DRIEST/STILL HASN'T GREENED UP ENOUGH.
THURSDAY SEVERE WEATHER: THERE IS A RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE RISK IS CONDITIONAL ON STORM
DEVELOPMENT. MODELS SHOW A MOIST, UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE
EAST OF THE DRYLINE. HOWEVER, THERE IS A QUESTION ON WHETHER ANY
STORMS CAN DEVELOP NEAR THE DRYLINE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MODELS SHOW A CAP WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE AND WITH CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING, HEATING WILL BE
SLOWER TO OCCUR. UNLIKE TODAY, THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA THURSDAY WHICH WILL PROVIDE
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME HEATING. HOWEVER, HOW MUCH HEATING IS ABLE TO
OCCUR WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS DIMINISH. IF
ENOUGH HEATING AND/OR CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE IS ABLE TO
DEVELOP THEN A STORM OR TWO COULD BE POSSIBLE. IF A STORM IS ABLE TO
DEVELOP, INSTABILITY OF 2500-3500 J/KG ALONG WITH WIND SHEAR WILL
MAKE SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
SEVERAL MODELS/CAMS SHOW THE CAP HOLDING WITH NO STORM DEVELOPMENT
IN OUR AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER, A FEW SHOW AT LEAST
ONE STORM DEVELOPING IN THE FA SO SOMETHING TO STILL WATCH FOR BUT
THE QUESTION WILL DEFINITELY BE WHETHER THE CAP CAN BE BROKEN OR
NOT.
MEANWHILE, NORTH OF THE FA A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
KS WITH STORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE
OUTFLOW/EFFECTIVE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AND ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE SHOWING
THE HIGHER CHANCES WILL BE EAST OF THE FA. IF THIS ACTIVITY DOES
MOVE INTO THE FA, THEN SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY: THERE IS ALSO A RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY, ESPECIALLY WITH REGARDS TO AREA.
MODELS SHOW THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE
FRONT CONTINUING TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE FA FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
EVENTUALLY STALLING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A MOIST, UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. THE POTENTIAL AREA FOR A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE THIS BOUNDARY FINALLY SLOWS
DOWN/STALLS. CURRENT MODEL RUNS SHOW THE BOUNDARY MAKING IT TO AT
LEAST THE I-44 CORRIDOR IF NOT FURTHER SOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IF
THE BOUNDARY DOES END UP OVER PORTIONS OF THE FA, INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
SATURDAY & SUNDAY: WHILE EPISODES OF SEVERE CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE
ON BOTH DAYS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS DUE TO LIKELY FEEDBACK ON MESOSCALE FACTORS FROM PRIOR
DAYS ACTIVITY, AND TIMING/STRENGTH QUESTIONS OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES.
THE SPATIAL CONFIGURATION OF SATURDAY'S RISK AREA WILL BE DRIVEN BY
HOW FAR SOUTH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS ON LATE
FRIDAY EVENING PRIOR TO NORTHWARD ADVANCE DURING THE DAYTIME.
ADDITIONALLY, SYNOPTIC FORCING LOOKS RATHER NEBULOUS THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH EVIDENCE OF NEUTRAL TO PERHAPS
SLIGHTLY RISING UPPER HEIGHT TENDENCY. STILL, WITH SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR PROGGED ACROSS THE REGION, CONCERN FOR
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (POSING A HAIL/WIND/LOW TORNADO
RISK) REMAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING PERIOD.
IN A SIMILAR VEIN TO THURSDAY, THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON SUNDAY
LOOKS TO BE ONE OF "LOW PROBABILITY YET HIGH IMPACT". A MUCH MORE
COHERENT AND STRONGER UPPER SYSTEM LOOKS TO QUICKLY EMERGE FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE DAY, AS A
ROBUST WARM SECTOR TAKES SHAPE TO THE EAST OF A DRYLINE ACROSS
THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. PATTERN
RECOGNITION WOULD ARGUE THAT A ROBUST SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS
POSSIBLE UNDER THIS REGIME, GENERALLY CENTERED NEAR AND EAST OF
THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER, A NOTABLE/STRONG EML ("CAP")
IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS AGAIN EVIDENT INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FURTHERMORE, RECENT TRENDS IN
GLOBAL/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE FOR A SLIGHTLY MORE DELAYED ARRIVAL OF
THE MAIN UPPER WAVE (I.E., SYNOPTIC ASCENT) INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
STILL, AN SUSTAINED THUNDERSTORM IN THE CURRENT PROGGED
ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT A RISK OF ALL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS,
INCLUDING POTENTIALLY VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.
WE WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER/TAMER WEATHER
EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS SUNDAY'S WEATHER SYSTEM DEPARTS OFF TO THE
EAST. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER/RENEWED RAIN AND STORM CHANCES LOOK
TO RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
UNGAR
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
LIFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR BY MID-MORNING
THURSDAY. CEILINGS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO LIFT TODAY, ESPECIALLY OVER
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. WHILE CEILINGS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME MVFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON, CEILINGS WILL DROP
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 64 81 61 82 / 0 10 20 10
HOBART OK 64 92 55 86 / 0 10 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 66 88 63 88 / 0 10 10 0
GAGE OK 62 90 48 81 / 10 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 63 80 56 78 / 20 20 60 10
DURANT OK 64 78 68 85 / 10 10 20 20
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ004-005-
009-010-014-021-033.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...01
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