014
FXUS64 KOUN 231805
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
105 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1240 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
- MULTI-HAZARD RISK POTENTIAL ON THURSDAY; SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE EAST
OF A DRYLINE, FIRE WEATHER CONCERN ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
OKLAHOMA.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND;
MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR STRONG-TO-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 AM CDT THU APR 23 2026
THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER AND DANGEROUS
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON,
EVENING AND NIGHT. EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY CAPTURES A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH, WITH MORE VIGOROUS NORTHERN STREAM WAVE, ADVANCING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
MINIMAL WEATHER IMPACT IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE LUNCHTIME
HOUR, WITH LOW CLOUDS, INTERMITTENT DRIZZLE AND A GUSTY SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS
OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. BY THE AFTERNOON, AS A DRYLINE
CONTINUES TO MIX AND SHARPEN, SEVERE WEATHER AND FIRE WEATHER
CHANCES WILL ACCORDINGLY INCREASE.
..SEVERE WEATHER
SEVERE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH NEAR
SUNSET REMAINS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL, YET WOULD BE VERY IMPACTFUL IF
STORMS MATERIALIZE. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTIES EARLY THIS MORNING
REMAIN 1.) HOW WARM DO WE GET ON THE MOIST SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY/HOW QUICKLY DO LOW AND MID-CLOUDS IN THIS AREA ERODE AND
2.) TIMING OF ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER-LEVEL SYNOPTIC ASCENT. HI-RES
GUIDANCE IS A BIT OF A MIXED BAG REGARDING QUESTION ONE, WITH LATE
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER-70S TO MID-80S EAST
OF THE DRYLINE. THE LATTER WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO ACHIEVE ROBUST
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER (EML) IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING SYNOPTIC
LIFT COULD ALSO AID IN ERODING RESIDUAL WARM LAYERS ALOFT. AS OF
EARLY THIS MORNING, A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH (AND ASSOCIATED
JET STREAK) APPEARS WELL-TIMED TO AID IN THIS PROCESS. HOWEVER,
GUIDANCE IS NOT UNIFIED ON THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE, AND A
SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY MODELED PROGRESSION WOULD HAMPER POTENTIAL
FOR SUSTAINED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EMANATING FROM THE
DRYLINE.
ANY EVENING TIME THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE AREA WOULD POSE A RISK
FOR ALL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS. A LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL RISK
WOULD ACCOMPANY EARLY STAGES OF CONVECTION GIVEN
STRAIGHT/UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES, STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
STRONG CLOUD-LAYER WIND SHEAR. AS STORMS MATURE, CLOSER TO 6-9 PM,
A TORNADO RISK WOULD LIKELY MATERIALIZE PROVIDED ENLARGING
(CURVED) LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES AS A NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET
EMERGES.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
DRYLINE PRIOR TO SUNSET, A MORE "LIKELY" ROUND OF AT LEAST
OCCASIONALLY SEVERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN,
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY MOVE IN FROM SOUTHERN KANSAS, AS A COLD
FRONT OVERSPREADS A REMNANT DRYLINE. WHILE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WILL LIKELY BECOME THE DOMINANT SEVERE HAZARD, INTERMITTENT RISK
FOR LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER CORES AND EVEN LOW (QLCS) TORNADO
POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. ANY ACTIVITY IN THIS REGIME WILL
LIKELY MOVE DEEPER INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA (I.E., CLEAR OUR AREA) BY
NO LATER THAN SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING.
..FIRE WEATHER
HOT, VERY DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE DRYLINE (ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR
WESTERN-NORTH TEXAS) FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. WHILE
NEAR-CRITICAL TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO MATERIALIZE, GREATEST CONCERN FOR PROBLEMATIC FIRE
STARTS AND SPREAD WILL BE IN AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF A HOLLIS-TO-
ALVA LINE, WHERE SPRING GREEN UP REMAINS VERY SLUGGISH TO OCCUR
(DUE TO ONGOING RAINFALL DEFICITS/DROUGHT). A RED FLAG WARNING
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THIS GENERAL CORRIDOR FROM 12 PM TO 9 PM
TODAY.
UNGAR
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM CDT THU APR 23 2026
WHILE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
FAR EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN EXTENTS OF THE FORECAST AREA, A MOSTLY DRY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE AT
THE LAST SEVERAL UPDATES, THE EFFECT OF EARLY DAY PRECIPITATION ON
THE FRONT (NAMELY ITS ASSOCIATED POSITION) WILL DETERMINE THE
PARAMETER SPACE AND OVERALL LIKELIHOOD OF STRONG-TO-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT ACROSS OUR AREA.
WHILE A MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE SHOVES THE FRONT ACROSS THE RED RIVER
BY THE LATE AFTERNOON, A FEW LESS RAINY/STORMY DEPICTIONS KEEP THE
FRONT CLOSER TO THE I-44/I-35 CORRIDOR TOWARDS SUNSET. HAVE OPTED TO
ADD THUNDERSTORM MENTIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THIS ZONE GIVEN
AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTIES ON FRONTAL POSITION. WHETHER ONLY
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA, OR A GREATER PORTION OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA, A FEW STRONG-TO-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
WE WILL TRANSITION BACK TO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, AS THE "WASHED OUT" FRONT BEGINS TO RETURN NORTHWARD AS AN
EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE AFTERNOON, EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WHILE CONTAINING A RISK FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF
SEVERE WEATHER, REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. THIS IS PRIMARILY DUE
TO A NEBULOUS UPPER AIR PATTERN/LACK OF (COHERENT) LARGE-SCALE
FORCING MECHANISMS. ONE MORE PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO IS THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A FOCUSED AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT DURING THE EVENING, AS AN ISENTROPIC REGIME BEGINS. ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT ORGANIZES AND SUSTAINS WILL CARRY A RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER, AGAIN WITH AN EMPHASIS ON DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL. THE TORNADO RISK IS LESS CERTAIN THOUGH NON-ZERO,
ESPECIALLY IF A STORM CAN ANCHOR TO THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE DURING
THE MID TO LATE EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
UNGAR
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 AM CDT THU APR 23 2026
SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A REPEAT OF THE PRIOR THURSDAY'S
FORECAST, WITH POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE AND FIRE WEATHER,
THOUGH WITH SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTIES/CAVEATS. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH
LOOKS TO QUICKLY MOVE OUT FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE PLAINS
DURING THE DAY, WITH A DRYLINE TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLANK
OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THESE BROAD SCALE FACTORS ARE COMING
INTO FOCUS, MESOSCALE DETAILS REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND LIKELY
WILL HAVE FEEDBACK FROM PRIOR DAYS ACTIVITY. ROBUST HEATING AND
MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER, ALONG WITH AT LEAST MODEST
SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT, APPEAR TO BE NECESSARY CONDITIONS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE DRYLINE DURING THE EVENING
DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF ANOTHER STRONG EML. SHOULD THESE
CONDITIONS BE MET, THEN INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS WITH RISKS FOR LARGE
TO VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WOULD
MATERIALIZE. FOR NOW, THIS CONCERN IS HIGHEST ALONG AND EAST OF
THE U.S. HIGHWAY 81 CORRIDOR.
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA (BEHIND THE DRYLINE), A PUNCH OF HOT, DRY
AND WINDY WEATHER WILL OFFER ANOTHER PERIOD OF AT LEAST NEAR-
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERN. DEPENDING ON THE NATURE OF
PRECIPITATION LEADING INTO SUNDAY, ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE FUELS REMAIN CONCERNINGLY DRY.
"TAMER" (DRY AND MILD) WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY RETURN ON
MONDAY BEHIND A DEPARTING PACIFIC FRONT. CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW
AND OCCASIONAL PASSAGES OF UPPER SYSTEMS WILL FOSTER RENEWED
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
UNGAR
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
OUR TERMINALS GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR COULD REMAIN IN
A MVFR CATEGORY AT LEAST THROUGH 20Z UNTIL THE CURRENT STRATUS
SCATTERS AND/OR MOVE OUT. OTHERWISE ALL REMAINING TERMINALS ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN IN A VFR CATEGORY AT LEAST THROUGH 04Z AFTER
WHICH MOST OF THEM COULD RETURN TO A MVFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ONLY TERMINALS KCSM & KWWR SHOULD REMAIN IN A
VFR CATEGORY THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 15-20 GUSTING 25-30 KTS ALTHOUGH
SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE ACROSS OUR TERMINALS GENERALLY
WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR RESULTING IN WIND GUSTS DECREASING. A
DRYLINE PUNCHING ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL KEEP SURFACE WINDS
MORE SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY ACROSS TERMINALS KCSM & KWWR. A COLD
FRONT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH LATE SHIFTING SURFACE WINDS OUT OF
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BETWEEN 01-09Z ALTHOUGH MAY NOT REACH TERMINAL
KDUA IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA UNTIL JUST AFTER THE END OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE A STRONG LOW-
LEVEL JET WILL BE INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH WHICH COULD RESULT
IN LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR BY 04Z AFFECTING ONLY TWO OF OUR TERMINALS
IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA (KOKC & KOUN) AND KDUA IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
A FAR AS ANY STORM ACTIVITY, THERE IS A VERY LOW (20%)
PROBABILITY FOR LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE BUT WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR A PROB30 IN PLACE FOR TERMINAL
KLAW BETWEEN 01-04Z. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT PASSAGE WITH TEMPOS FOR TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL THROUGH
NORTHCENTRAL OKLAHOMA GENERALLY BETWEEN 00-09Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 81 61 79 56 / 20 40 20 10
HOBART OK 93 55 83 55 / 20 10 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 87 63 85 59 / 20 10 0 0
GAGE OK 90 48 79 51 / 0 10 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 81 56 75 52 / 30 70 10 0
DURANT OK 77 68 84 61 / 10 30 30 20
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-005-009-
010-014-021-033.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...68
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