329
FXUS64 KOUN 231834
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
134 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 131 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
- MULTI-HAZARD RISK POTENTIAL ON THURSDAY; SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE
EAST OF A DRYLINE AND ALONG A FRONT, FIRE WEATHER CONCERN
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND;
MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR STRONG-TO-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
MULTI-HAZARD RISK POTENTIAL CONTINUES WITH FIRE AND SEVERE WEATHER
CONCERNS.
THE SET-UP: MODELS SHOW A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING EASTWARD FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS INTO KS AND POSSIBLY THE PANHANDLES AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. AT THE SFC, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KS NEAR THE OK/KS STATE LINE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE A SHARPENING DRYLINE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD FROM THE
FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX. THE FRONT IS
THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER THIS
EVENING INTO FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER: DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE
FA WEST OF THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON. THE DRY AIR ALONG WITH
BREEZY/GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS, HOT TEMPERATURES, AND SLOW TO GREEN UP
VEGETATION WILL COMBINE TO LEAD TO ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL/LOCALLY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. A RED
FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN
OK, PRIMARILY WHERE THE VEGETATION HAS BEEN THE SLOWEST TO GREENUP
AND LEAST AMOUNT OF RAIN HAS OCCURRED. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD CAUSING A WIND SHIFT TO THE N AND NE WHICH COULD
CAUSE A PROBLEM WITH ANY ONGOING FIRES.
SEVERE WEATHER: THERE ARE TWO DIFFERENT WAYS THAT THE FA COULD
POTENTIALLY GET STORMS WHICH IS EITHER DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE DRYLINE
AND/OR DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE FRONT.
DRYLINE SCENARIO: THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER ANY STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR NEAR THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS WHETHER THE CAP WILL BE ABLE TO BE
BROKEN. THE MORNING OUN SOUNDING SHOWED A STRONG CAP IN PLACE OVER
THE AREA. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH WILL THIS CAP WEAKEN TODAY
AND/OR ENOUGH LIFT CAN DEVELOP. CURRENTLY, THERE IS A PLAN TO DO A
20Z SPECIAL SOUNDING SO WE SHOULD HOPEFULLY HAVE A BETTER IDEA OF
THE STRENGTH OF THE CAP WHEN THAT DATA IS IN.
SOME OF THE MODELS/CAMS SHOW THE CAP HOLDING BUT A FEW DO SHOW ONE
OR TWO STORMS DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THIS TO OCCUR, THE
CLOUDS WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE/CLEAR OUT PROVIDING STRONG
SFC HEATING. THE HEATING ALONG WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE
MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO OVERCOME THE CAP. IF A STORM DOES
DEVELOP, THE MOIST, UNSTABLE AIRMASS EAST OF THE DRYLINE WILL MAKE
SEVERE STORMS LIKELY WITH INITIALLY VERY LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN
CONCERN ALTHOUGH IF A STORM CAN SUSTAIN ITSELF INTO THIS EVENING
THEN THE TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE DUE TO A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SCENARIO: THE BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS AND
SEVERE STORMS FOR THE FA WILL BE NEAR THE FRONTAL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN KS
POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY TO THE TRIPLE POINT NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER.
STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT
AS THE OUTFLOW/EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT/SEVERE STORMS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTHWARD
BUT SOME STORMS COULD AFFECT AT LEAST EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA,
GENERALLY NEAR/EAST OF I-35 INTO EARLY FRIDAY. WITH THE MOIST,
UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE SOUTH OF THE FRONT, SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. INITIALLY
ALL HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT THE MAIN CONCERN IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION TO A DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS MORE STORMS DEVELOP AND
FORM INTO LINE(S) OF STORMS.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND.
FRIDAY: SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FA BUT
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE.
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FA FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. MODELS SHOW THE BOUNDARY
EVENTUALLY STALLING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE QUESTION IS WHERE. CURRENTLY, IT LOOKS FROM AS FAR NORTH AS I-40
CORRIDOR AREA BUT MORE LIKELY FURTHER SOUTH. NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THIS EFFECTIVE FRONT AND ANY OTHER LINGERING
OUTFLOW OR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES. A MOIST, UNSTABLE
AIRMASS AND MODEST SHEAR WILL MAKE SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS.
SATURDAY: SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY BUT WILL BE
AT LEAST SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON WHAT OCCURS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO STALL
SOMEWHERE OVER THE FA FRIDAY IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT SATURDAY WITH A DRYLINE INTO OR JUST WEST OF THE FA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE WARM
FRONT BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY OF THE FRONTAL POSITION BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
DRYLINE. A MOIST, UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE CAPABLE OF ALL HAZARDS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 AM CDT THU APR 23 2026
SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A REPEAT OF THE PRIOR THURSDAY'S
FORECAST, WITH POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE AND FIRE WEATHER,
THOUGH WITH SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTIES/CAVEATS. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH
LOOKS TO QUICKLY MOVE OUT FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE PLAINS
DURING THE DAY, WITH A DRYLINE TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLANK
OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THESE BROAD SCALE FACTORS ARE COMING
INTO FOCUS, MESOSCALE DETAILS REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND LIKELY
WILL HAVE FEEDBACK FROM PRIOR DAYS ACTIVITY. ROBUST HEATING AND
MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER, ALONG WITH AT LEAST MODEST
SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT, APPEAR TO BE NECESSARY CONDITIONS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE DRYLINE DURING THE EVENING
DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF ANOTHER STRONG EML. SHOULD THESE
CONDITIONS BE MET, THEN INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS WITH RISKS FOR LARGE
TO VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WOULD
MATERIALIZE. FOR NOW, THIS CONCERN IS HIGHEST ALONG AND EAST OF
THE U.S. HIGHWAY 81 CORRIDOR.
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA (BEHIND THE DRYLINE), A PUNCH OF HOT, DRY
AND WINDY WEATHER WILL OFFER ANOTHER PERIOD OF AT LEAST NEAR-
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERN. DEPENDING ON THE NATURE OF
PRECIPITATION LEADING INTO SUNDAY, ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE FUELS REMAIN CONCERNINGLY DRY.
"TAMER" (DRY AND MILD) WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY RETURN ON
MONDAY BEHIND A DEPARTING PACIFIC FRONT. CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW
AND OCCASIONAL PASSAGES OF UPPER SYSTEMS WILL FOSTER RENEWED
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
UNGAR
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
OUR TERMINALS GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR COULD REMAIN IN
A MVFR CATEGORY AT LEAST THROUGH 20Z UNTIL THE CURRENT STRATUS
SCATTERS AND/OR MOVE OUT. OTHERWISE ALL REMAINING TERMINALS ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN IN A VFR CATEGORY AT LEAST THROUGH 04Z AFTER
WHICH MOST OF THEM COULD RETURN TO A MVFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ONLY TERMINALS KCSM & KWWR SHOULD REMAIN IN A
VFR CATEGORY THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 15-20 GUSTING 25-30 KTS ALTHOUGH
SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE ACROSS OUR TERMINALS GENERALLY
WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR RESULTING IN WIND GUSTS DECREASING. A
DRYLINE PUNCHING ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL KEEP SURFACE WINDS
MORE SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY ACROSS TERMINALS KCSM & KWWR. A COLD
FRONT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH LATE SHIFTING SURFACE WINDS OUT OF
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BETWEEN 01-09Z ALTHOUGH MAY NOT REACH TERMINAL
KDUA IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA UNTIL JUST AFTER THE END OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE A STRONG LOW-
LEVEL JET WILL BE INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH WHICH COULD RESULT
IN LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR BY 04Z AFFECTING ONLY TWO OF OUR TERMINALS
IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA (KOKC & KOUN) AND KDUA IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
A FAR AS ANY STORM ACTIVITY, THERE IS A VERY LOW (20%)
PROBABILITY FOR LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE BUT WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR A PROB30 IN PLACE FOR TERMINAL
KLAW BETWEEN 01-04Z. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT PASSAGE WITH TEMPOS FOR TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL THROUGH
NORTHCENTRAL OKLAHOMA GENERALLY BETWEEN 00-09Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 60 81 58 84 / 40 10 0 20
HOBART OK 54 85 57 89 / 10 0 0 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 61 89 62 93 / 10 10 0 10
GAGE OK 48 82 52 84 / 0 0 0 20
PONCA CITY OK 54 77 55 80 / 70 10 0 40
DURANT OK 68 86 63 86 / 30 20 20 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-005-009-
010-014-021-033.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...68
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