461
FXUS64 KOUN 241745
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1245 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
- UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
DAILY OPPORTUNITIES FOR STRONG-TO-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
- BRIEFLY DRIER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES
RETURN NEXT WEEK.
- FIRE WEATHER POSSIBLE BEHIND THE DRYLINE THIS WEEKEND, MAINLY
ACROSS FAR WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO WEST-CENTRAL OK. STORM INTENSITY
HAS SLOWLY BEEN ON THE DECREASE THE LAST COUPLE HOURS AS ACTIVITY
HAS BECOME ELEVATED BEHIND THE OUTFLOW. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF LARGE
HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE THE NEXT ONE TO TWO
HOURS BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK CONTINUES TO DIMINISH. FLOODING
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN IN AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS LAST EVENING BUT THIS THREAT WILL ALSO DECREASE OVER
TIME AS FORWARD SPEED OF THE LINE INCREASES AND STORMS MOVE INTO
AREAS THAT DID NOT RECEIVE RAIN YESTERDAY.
EXPECT THE FRONT/OUTFLOW TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
THIS MORNING AS A SURFACE LOW ALSO SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST
OK THROUGH THE DAY. THESE FEATURES WILL BE IMPORTANT TO WATCH FOR
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ONCE
AGAIN. HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME SPREAD ON EXACTLY WHERE THESE
FEATURES WILL SET UP DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME SOLUTIONS
SHOWING THE BOUNDARY SLOWING ACROSS CENTRAL INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL OK
DURING THE AFTERNOON, WHILE OTHERS PROGRESS THE BOUNDARY
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS OR SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. AS OF NOW THE MORE
FAVORED SCENARIO APPEARS TO BE THE FASTER PROGRESSION WITH
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT PROBABLE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OK AS CAPPING ERODES. STORM COVERAGE
IS LIKELY TO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED, WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS THE MAIN HAZARDS AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET APPEARS QUITE WEAK
TOMORROW EVENING. THAT SAID, BACKED SURFACE WINDS NEAR/NORTH OF
THE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COULD LOCALLY ENHANCE THE SHEAR ENOUGH
THAT A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN
AND/OR MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT IF NOT EARLIER.
WARE
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE AREA AS
BROAD TROUGHING IS MAINTAINED OVER THE WESTERN US. SYNOPTIC
FORCING WILL BE SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS ON SATURDAY, THOUGH THERE ARE
HINTS OF A WEAK EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL WAVE IN THE FLOW CROSSING THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE, THE RESIDUAL COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN LIFTING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE
DAY ON SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES INTO SOUTHWEST KS. THE FRONT WILL LIFT INTO CENTRAL OR
NORTH-CENTRAL OK BY MID AFTERNOON WITH A DRYLINE EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL OK. STRONG INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT, WITH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR BEING ENHANCED ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AS WELL. STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO INITIATE ALONG/NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, THOUGH THE
EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY SETS UP AND HOW MANY STORMS
DEVELOP IS STILL UNCERTAIN. LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND
TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY A MUCH MORE COHERENT SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST AND WILL LIFT INTO THE PANHANDLES AND SOUTHERN KS BY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. AS OF NOW THE WAVE TIMING APPEARS TO
BE SLIGHTLY MISALIGNED WITH PEAK DIURNAL HEATING (TOO SLOW), WHICH
MAY BE PARTLY WHY MOST MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON STORM INITIATION
ALONG THE DRYLINE IN OUR AREA. HOWEVER, IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP, A RATHER VOLATILE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH EXTENSIVE CAPE AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR EVIDENT ON MODEL
SOUNDINGS WHICH WILL BRING A RISK FOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS. AS OF
NOW THE GREATEST RISK APPEARS TO BE GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE HWY 81 CORRIDOR, THOUGH THIS COULD STILL CHANGE DEPENDING ON
EXACTLY WHERE THE DRYLINE SETS UP.
ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TO THE WEST OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS WESTERN OK. DEPENDING ON THE
NATURE OF PRECIPITATION LEADING INTO SUNDAY, ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE FUELS REMAIN CONCERNINGLY DRY.
WARE
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AS SURFACE MOISTURE IS SHUNTED
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST BEHIND A PACIFIC FRONT AND OUR AREA IS
POSITIONED WITHIN A ZONE OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND SUNDAY'S WAVE.
HOWEVER, WITH BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW BEING MAINTAINED OVER THE REGION
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS (AND SEVERE WEATHER) COULD
RETURN AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK AS SURFACE
MOISTURE LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA.
WARE
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
PERSISTING STRATUS WILL LINGER AHEAD OF A DRYLINE RESULTING IN
PERIODS OF MVFR CATEGORY CEILINGS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KCSM
& KWWR AT LEAST THROUGH 21Z. AFTER 21Z ALL TERMINALS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO A VFR CATEGORY AT LEAST THROUGH 08Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHICH COULD AFFECT TERMINAL
KDUA BETWEEN 22-01Z WITH A 30% PROBABILITY IN PLACE. SURFACE WINDS
OUT OF THE NORTH AROUND 10 KTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT. HOWEVER,
EXPECTING THIS COLD FRONT TO LIFT AS A WARM FRONT AFTER 06Z WHICH
WILL GRADUALLY VEER THE WINDS MORE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 81 58 83 62 / 10 0 30 30
HOBART OK 85 57 88 59 / 0 0 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 88 61 92 64 / 0 0 0 10
GAGE OK 82 52 83 53 / 0 10 20 10
PONCA CITY OK 79 54 79 59 / 10 0 50 60
DURANT OK 86 62 86 65 / 30 20 20 40
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...68
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